Here we have the BXY or the Pound Index. Im not gonna pretend i know what curriencies make up the BXY its worth a google if you want to know. But what we have here Is an Alternate bat pattern that tested the HOP and was rejected. I am gussing the pattern will drive down to the 382 retracement of this pattern and then start moving up.
I say this becasue when you look at the COT report the Commercials reduced their positions from 136k orders to 127k orders while the shorts marginally increased theirs about 1,600 orders.
the Non-Commercials, which are the fuel for the trend, reduced their short side by 10k orders bringing their value from 63,000 short to about 52,900 short. this is a siginificant deal. so when you look at the net positions for both which is what most COT traders do then we have the following stats for The Cable...
Commercials Current= 34,112 // previous = 44,403
Non-Commercials Current = (24,048) // Previous= (36,044)
I think this is nothing more than the commercials delievering on contracts and the Non-Commercials taking profit. when you look at the COT index both sides were getting pretty close to the buy/ sell extremes respectively.
So, all in all what i think we will see is price drive down to the 382 of this pattern monday possibly tuesday some minor consolidation tuesday possibly wednesday and some upward movement to finish out the week. So, i suggest any shorts on any pound trades clear them and wait for another chance to sell the pound again.
I say this, becasue on the Commercial short side there were no large orders indicating a drive for a change in direction and you definetly dont see the profiteers loading up on the long side for the Non-Commercials.
For my friends across the pond what do you guys have going on around this time of year, becasue i would like to know for future speculation. why would any big businesses in the UK be hedging against the pound to lock in a rate? like a rainy season, or dry season, major crop planting anything helps... thanks for reading!
I say this becasue when you look at the COT report the Commercials reduced their positions from 136k orders to 127k orders while the shorts marginally increased theirs about 1,600 orders.
the Non-Commercials, which are the fuel for the trend, reduced their short side by 10k orders bringing their value from 63,000 short to about 52,900 short. this is a siginificant deal. so when you look at the net positions for both which is what most COT traders do then we have the following stats for The Cable...
Commercials Current= 34,112 // previous = 44,403
Non-Commercials Current = (24,048) // Previous= (36,044)
I think this is nothing more than the commercials delievering on contracts and the Non-Commercials taking profit. when you look at the COT index both sides were getting pretty close to the buy/ sell extremes respectively.
So, all in all what i think we will see is price drive down to the 382 of this pattern monday possibly tuesday some minor consolidation tuesday possibly wednesday and some upward movement to finish out the week. So, i suggest any shorts on any pound trades clear them and wait for another chance to sell the pound again.
I say this, becasue on the Commercial short side there were no large orders indicating a drive for a change in direction and you definetly dont see the profiteers loading up on the long side for the Non-Commercials.
For my friends across the pond what do you guys have going on around this time of year, becasue i would like to know for future speculation. why would any big businesses in the UK be hedging against the pound to lock in a rate? like a rainy season, or dry season, major crop planting anything helps... thanks for reading!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.