Long

Updated

BZUN - Rolling journal pt 2

Previous idea:

Scenarios that make sense to me:
1) Rally from 1H SD flip that was the premise of my second entry (unlikely because of the drift into the bottom of this SDF when price should have reacted more strongly if buyers were stepping up)
2) Bear engulfing plays out and price drops to top of flag that was the premise of my first entry, confluent with .705 of this leg up before rally to 1M O/.236 of entire 5 waves/-.618 of current leg, though there is a small 1D gap in the 51's that might be the top (likely)
3) Bear engulfing plays out and sweeps stops under clean lows / reaching deeper in demand zone for liquidity before bounce to target or to top of flag for breakeven exit, coinciding with LT trendline breakdown and retest (likely)
4) Bear engulfing plays out and price goes to 40.75 gap before bounce to top of demand flipped supply / trendline retest for breakeven exit (worst case)

1W shows a swing failure, wick through lowest body but closes above, obvious target is middle ATR band

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Volume spread analysis on 15 min
Highlighted three candles
1) High volume for relatively little drop -> Absorption
2) Low volume for relatively large drop
3) High volume for relatively little drop -> Absorption, buyers getting their bids filled at this level, possibly 2 was to allow 3 to occur
If that's the case we should see price go higher Monday

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Scenario 2 playing out
Need to see price to break demand flipped resistance in blue
Interesting to note is BZUN lagged SHCOMP correlation at the open, high probability low risk scalp opportunity

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Expecting this to play out, favoring 51 target over 52.5

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vs SHCOMP

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Grinding into resistance, much more constructive than yesterday's one wick wonder

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Note how much time price is spending in upper half of this zone
Bullish

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Pamp et

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mewn it

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2.5% from correlation puts us at last week open, if this week closes there I'm targeting monthly open (53) instead of 51.5

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Hammered today but structurally still intact, staying in upper half of the breaker / above range EQ

A lot of fear over China stocks but this looks like an impulsive breakout, looking to retest white box before move higher
Overall bullish/neutral, spending much more time in this trade than I would've liked

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Forgot to mention, .618 fib on SHCOMP is untested SR flip + gap to fill, I'm looking lower after that

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Not much to say, pretty neutral
Retest of breaker was a success so looking at previously stated targets

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Second weekly inside bar, I think it's pretty clear price wants higher given how much time we're spending in the upper half of this current range, should be a bigger move than my original target considering how long we've been ranging. Likely going to trail stops up instead of taking profit.

Trade closed manually

Out under EQ of range this morning, price not acting constructively

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Was right to get out, looking for a swing failure at this range low, huge absorption

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Wicked through flag
T1: Low of previous range
T2: Gap fill
SL: Under wick

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Out breakeven, looks like dookie
Can't break above EQ of yesterday's range, obvious targets lower + stop run below wick to take out aggressive longs likely
Buyers should've stepped in by now if price were to bounce here

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Decent close, wick into gap
I'd expect us to range around after this giant down week

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Maybe something like this for next week, dip below close, finish higher forming tweezer bottom
Then find hard resistance at top of this demand flipped supply before filling gap

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Not really interested until .618-.65 fib
Better plays to be had elsewhere until then

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SHCOMP breakdown, price not moving constructively

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Gap filled, longing a close above gap

SHCOMP looks OK, wicked to top of SD flip, rejected back down but holding under breaker, another move up likely breaks through SD flip
Sell off across the majors looks overdone at least in the interim
Cautiously looking for longs

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RIP

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Missed a big move, gap fill + .5 fib + 89W EMA
Weekly looks nice for a rally to .382 fib

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Close above dashed horizontal would confirm

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Exited EOD, no volume on rally, QQQ approaching first resistance, SHCOMP still looks like garbage

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Was good idea to exit, now for a little hopium

Hang Seng futs coming into major 1M pivot w/ bull div on daily
SHCOMP bull div on 4H
BZUN staying about gap EQ
VERY aggressive trade, but extremes in sentiment tells me it's likely we see a little upside from here

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BABA 1W RSI SUPPORT
BZUN 1W RSI SUPPORT
Both telling the same story, expecting a 10% faceripper

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BZUN 1H
Average volume, no price movement
Day traders selling EOD and someone's taking their place

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SHCOMP bull engulfing 1D
hammer 1W
Should see some follow through today and early next week

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T1 T2 marked, just confluence of global fib, fib from high to low, FTR EQ, and gap

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SHCOMP +4% LMAO

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Don't really use these 5/10 EMAs anymore because they clutter up the chart but some crazy confluence with targets; note how well they've contained price on this drop

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Correction: previous 10 EMA was accidentally set to SMA

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Whoops, this is the correct image lol

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T1 hit

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Bias still intact as long as we don't close below gap EQ

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Inclining volume is a good sign

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Probably will stop out tomorrow, SHCOMP looks like breakdown of support, attempt to rally above, and rejection back down
Let's see how the Asia session plays out...

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SHCOMP filled gap then reversed back up, good momentum to retest resistance especially on the back of rally in US

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Just shy of T2, would lock in profits here if you followed along

Trade closed manually

This post is getting too long, will have a new idea for any significant move but should be thankful for juicing such a big move when everything's bearish :)

rtang1995

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rtang1995