🧭 Technical Context
Price is currently sitting at the key support area of 0.5890–0.5900, tested multiple times since April.
This week’s candlestick shows a clear close below the intermediate micro-structure (two consecutive closes under recent lows), confirming bearish pressure.
The weekly RSI remains in a neutral-to-low zone, trending downwards with no active bullish divergence.
📉 Technical Conclusion: Active bearish bias. Watch out for potential false breaks below 0.5890 as liquidity traps.
📊 COT Report – as of June 17, 2025
🇨🇦 CAD
Non-Commercials: added +8.5k long contracts, aggressively cut −18.3k shorts
→ Excessive optimism, potential exhaustion on the buy-side
Commercials: added +31k shorts
→ Typical hedge behavior – signaling protection from CAD devaluation
🇨🇭CHF
Net positions in gradual decline with no sharp moves → CHF remains in consolidation, with a defensive tone
Open Interest dropped by −19.5k → Institutional money exiting positions
→ Interpretation: Market likely preparing for a directional breakout, CHF could act as a safe haven
📉 COT Conclusion: CAD appears overbought, CHF still gathering strength. Bearish bias on CADCHF remains intact.
📅 Seasonality – June Pattern
CHF tends to strengthen in June:
+0.0095 (10Y average), +0.0068 (5Y average)
CAD shows structural weakness in June:
−0.0027 (10Y), −0.0076 (5Y)
📉 Seasonality Conclusion: June favors CAD weakness and CHF strength → Bearish confirmation for CADCHF
🧠 Retail Sentiment
92% of retail traders are long CADCHF, only 8% are short
→ Extreme imbalance = classic contrarian signal
📉 Sentiment Conclusion: Confirms potential for continued downside on CADCHF
✅ Trade Plan Summary
📌 Base scenario:
Short CADCHF if we get a daily/weekly close below 0.5890
🎯 Target 1: 0.5820
🎯 Target 2: 0.5770
🚫 Invalidation: daily close above 0.5960 (invalidates current setup)
📌 Alternative scenario:
Short from 0.5960–0.6000 if we get a bearish rejection pattern → ideal for better R/R
Price is currently sitting at the key support area of 0.5890–0.5900, tested multiple times since April.
This week’s candlestick shows a clear close below the intermediate micro-structure (two consecutive closes under recent lows), confirming bearish pressure.
The weekly RSI remains in a neutral-to-low zone, trending downwards with no active bullish divergence.
📉 Technical Conclusion: Active bearish bias. Watch out for potential false breaks below 0.5890 as liquidity traps.
📊 COT Report – as of June 17, 2025
🇨🇦 CAD
Non-Commercials: added +8.5k long contracts, aggressively cut −18.3k shorts
→ Excessive optimism, potential exhaustion on the buy-side
Commercials: added +31k shorts
→ Typical hedge behavior – signaling protection from CAD devaluation
🇨🇭CHF
Net positions in gradual decline with no sharp moves → CHF remains in consolidation, with a defensive tone
Open Interest dropped by −19.5k → Institutional money exiting positions
→ Interpretation: Market likely preparing for a directional breakout, CHF could act as a safe haven
📉 COT Conclusion: CAD appears overbought, CHF still gathering strength. Bearish bias on CADCHF remains intact.
📅 Seasonality – June Pattern
CHF tends to strengthen in June:
+0.0095 (10Y average), +0.0068 (5Y average)
CAD shows structural weakness in June:
−0.0027 (10Y), −0.0076 (5Y)
📉 Seasonality Conclusion: June favors CAD weakness and CHF strength → Bearish confirmation for CADCHF
🧠 Retail Sentiment
92% of retail traders are long CADCHF, only 8% are short
→ Extreme imbalance = classic contrarian signal
📉 Sentiment Conclusion: Confirms potential for continued downside on CADCHF
✅ Trade Plan Summary
📌 Base scenario:
Short CADCHF if we get a daily/weekly close below 0.5890
🎯 Target 1: 0.5820
🎯 Target 2: 0.5770
🚫 Invalidation: daily close above 0.5960 (invalidates current setup)
📌 Alternative scenario:
Short from 0.5960–0.6000 if we get a bearish rejection pattern → ideal for better R/R
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.