📊 CAD/CHF – August 4th, 2025 | Tactical Long Bias
🔹 Technical Outlook
The daily chart shows:
Strong bullish reaction within a weekly demand zone (0.5800–0.5830), confirmed by multiple lower wicks → growing buying pressure.
Weekly RSI bouncing out of oversold → potential mid-term reversal signal.
Structure may be shifting with a first target at 0.5950 (intermediate zone) and second target at 0.6000–0.6030 (major supply).
Recent bullish engulfing broke out of inside candle sequence → active technical trigger.
🧠 Commitment of Traders (COT) – July 29
Non-Commercials:
CAD: Aggressive increase in shorts (+3,888) and reduction in longs (-2,222) → heavily bearish speculative positioning.
CHF: Increase in longs (+936) and decrease in shorts (-1,095) → net bullish sentiment on CHF.
📌 However, CAD’s overstretched short positioning may lead to technical short-covering, especially if CHF starts to lose momentum.
📈 Seasonality – August
CHF: Range-bound or weak in August across all timeframes (20y, 15y, 10y).
CAD: Mild seasonal strength in August, especially on the 2y and 5y outlook.
➡️ Seasonal bias supports a tactical long on CAD/CHF during the first half of August.
✅ Trading Outlook
📌 Tactical Bias: LONG
🎯 First Target: 0.5950 → mid-level reaction zone.
🛑 Invalidation: below 0.5800 (demand breakdown).
🧠 Confluences: demand zone + RSI reversal + extreme COT positioning + seasonal support.
🔹 Technical Outlook
The daily chart shows:
Strong bullish reaction within a weekly demand zone (0.5800–0.5830), confirmed by multiple lower wicks → growing buying pressure.
Weekly RSI bouncing out of oversold → potential mid-term reversal signal.
Structure may be shifting with a first target at 0.5950 (intermediate zone) and second target at 0.6000–0.6030 (major supply).
Recent bullish engulfing broke out of inside candle sequence → active technical trigger.
🧠 Commitment of Traders (COT) – July 29
Non-Commercials:
CAD: Aggressive increase in shorts (+3,888) and reduction in longs (-2,222) → heavily bearish speculative positioning.
CHF: Increase in longs (+936) and decrease in shorts (-1,095) → net bullish sentiment on CHF.
📌 However, CAD’s overstretched short positioning may lead to technical short-covering, especially if CHF starts to lose momentum.
📈 Seasonality – August
CHF: Range-bound or weak in August across all timeframes (20y, 15y, 10y).
CAD: Mild seasonal strength in August, especially on the 2y and 5y outlook.
➡️ Seasonal bias supports a tactical long on CAD/CHF during the first half of August.
✅ Trading Outlook
📌 Tactical Bias: LONG
🎯 First Target: 0.5950 → mid-level reaction zone.
🛑 Invalidation: below 0.5800 (demand breakdown).
🧠 Confluences: demand zone + RSI reversal + extreme COT positioning + seasonal support.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.