CADJPY has successfully broken out of a well-defined falling wedge pattern, confirming a bullish reversal setup on the daily timeframe. Price action has not only cleared the descending trendline but has also completed a clean retest of the breakout zone near 104.000–104.500. This retest held firmly, showing strong buyer interest, and the pair is now poised for a continuation toward the next key resistance level around 110.000. The technical structure is now favoring bulls, with momentum shifting upward after a prolonged corrective phase.
Fundamentally, the Canadian dollar is gaining strength supported by rising crude oil prices and stronger-than-expected economic data from Canada. The Bank of Canada’s recent tone remains relatively hawkish compared to other central banks, which adds further support to CAD. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to remain under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy stance. With Japan’s inflation struggling to sustain above target, the BOJ is showing no urgency to tighten, which keeps JPY weak against higher-yielding currencies like CAD.
The breakout from the falling wedge is also being supported by volume and bullish daily candles, suggesting a solid shift in market sentiment. The pair has formed a higher low and higher high, officially transitioning into a bullish structure. With the retest of the breakout structure now complete, there’s a high probability for continuation toward 108.000 initially and a full extension to 110.000 in the coming weeks.
Traders should closely monitor any dips as potential buying opportunities as long as CADJPY holds above 103.500–104.000 support. The reward-to-risk ratio remains favorable for swing traders aiming for medium-term targets. With strong technical confirmation, supportive fundamentals, and risk appetite returning to markets, CADJPY is setting up for a potentially profitable bullish wave.
Fundamentally, the Canadian dollar is gaining strength supported by rising crude oil prices and stronger-than-expected economic data from Canada. The Bank of Canada’s recent tone remains relatively hawkish compared to other central banks, which adds further support to CAD. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to remain under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy stance. With Japan’s inflation struggling to sustain above target, the BOJ is showing no urgency to tighten, which keeps JPY weak against higher-yielding currencies like CAD.
The breakout from the falling wedge is also being supported by volume and bullish daily candles, suggesting a solid shift in market sentiment. The pair has formed a higher low and higher high, officially transitioning into a bullish structure. With the retest of the breakout structure now complete, there’s a high probability for continuation toward 108.000 initially and a full extension to 110.000 in the coming weeks.
Traders should closely monitor any dips as potential buying opportunities as long as CADJPY holds above 103.500–104.000 support. The reward-to-risk ratio remains favorable for swing traders aiming for medium-term targets. With strong technical confirmation, supportive fundamentals, and risk appetite returning to markets, CADJPY is setting up for a potentially profitable bullish wave.
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Join our Forex Community Telegram group and connect with thousands of traders.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.