This video discussed the large bullish weekly pinbar setup that has formed in light crude. I discussed the current market structure, trading tips and trade ideas. Notes from the video are posted below.
**Current Market Structure**
-Long term bullish trend
-Price has stayed within bullish channel
-Large bullish weekly candle from pullback off of key support
**Trading Tips**
-Chances are higher now that price makes a string bullish run up to $75 and may even make a quick run to 80.
-Keep in mind that oil is generally a volatile product and large out-sized moves are common.
-This can be traded as pure directional using either futures, CFDs, or ETFs(with oil exposure), but due to the high IV I am looking to get both directional and short premium, which can be done by selling puts.
-Either enter on a retracement around $69 (more risky) or a break above the weekly candle around $71.25(less risky)
-Price targets are $75 and $80
**Trade Ideas**
-Sold a put w/ $61.50 strike(15 delta, 30 DTE) when price was at $67
-Rolled that put up to $64 strike(17 delta, 27 DTE) when price was at $69
-Now that we have a price action signal I am considering rolling up to a 30 delta option($66) to get more directional
-Keep in mind that September light crude is at 68.14, $2 below spot price
**Current Market Structure**
-Long term bullish trend
-Price has stayed within bullish channel
-Large bullish weekly candle from pullback off of key support
**Trading Tips**
-Chances are higher now that price makes a string bullish run up to $75 and may even make a quick run to 80.
-Keep in mind that oil is generally a volatile product and large out-sized moves are common.
-This can be traded as pure directional using either futures, CFDs, or ETFs(with oil exposure), but due to the high IV I am looking to get both directional and short premium, which can be done by selling puts.
-Either enter on a retracement around $69 (more risky) or a break above the weekly candle around $71.25(less risky)
-Price targets are $75 and $80
**Trade Ideas**
-Sold a put w/ $61.50 strike(15 delta, 30 DTE) when price was at $67
-Rolled that put up to $64 strike(17 delta, 27 DTE) when price was at $69
-Now that we have a price action signal I am considering rolling up to a 30 delta option($66) to get more directional
-Keep in mind that September light crude is at 68.14, $2 below spot price
Trade closed manually
entered a close order due to daily pinbar. See more details of that close order here 
Note
Keep an eye on this folks, oil could definitely drop 2-4 handles. Very bearish pinbar from short term resistance. If we get a 64 to 66 print, I will definitely re-enter with a short put. If you are feeling risk, could short from here with a 1 handle stoploss.
Dad of 5 • Dev • Candlestick Whisperer • Crypto class of 2019
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Dad of 5 • Dev • Candlestick Whisperer • Crypto class of 2019
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.