Technical Overview:
The current price action is testing the upper boundary of a descending wedge, a bullish reversal pattern. The recent strong green candle indicates a potential breakout attempt, yet price is hovering near a critical resistance level at $74.20 (Fib 0.5).
Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement are:
🔼 Resistance at $74.20 (0.5), then $78.16 (0.618)
🧲 Local support at $69.78 (0.382)
🛡️ Strong demand zone near $63.81 (0.236) if rejection occurs
Structure + Patterns:
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Case:
Bearish Case:
Macro & Geopolitical Factors to Monitor:
Final Thoughts:
Price is at a pivot zone — breaking this wedge with strength could shift the short-to-midterm trend. Until then, this remains a "show me" breakout. Watch how the next 1–2 weekly candles close around the $74–$75 area to confirm direction.
The current price action is testing the upper boundary of a descending wedge, a bullish reversal pattern. The recent strong green candle indicates a potential breakout attempt, yet price is hovering near a critical resistance level at $74.20 (Fib 0.5).
Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement are:
🔼 Resistance at $74.20 (0.5), then $78.16 (0.618)
🧲 Local support at $69.78 (0.382)
🛡️ Strong demand zone near $63.81 (0.236) if rejection occurs
Structure + Patterns:
- Price has been compressing inside a falling wedge, which statistically resolves to the upside.
- The breakout candle broke above the 20 EMA and touched the upper wedge resistance — signaling a decision point.
- Volume is rising on bullish candles — initial confirmation of buyer interest, but not yet decisive.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Case:
- Break and close above $74.20 on higher volume → likely move toward $78–$86 resistance zone.
- Confirmation of wedge breakout could trigger trend reversal, aligning with bullish fib levels.
- Momentum could accelerate if macro factors support demand (see geopolitics below).
Bearish Case:
- Failure to close above $74.20 = fakeout risk → price may reject down to $69.78 or even retest $63.81.
- Bearish rejection wick on the daily/4H would be an early signal.
Macro & Geopolitical Factors to Monitor:
- Middle East Tensions: Any escalation (especially around Iran or shipping lanes) could spike oil due to supply fears.
- US Strategic Reserves & Elections: Moves to refill reserves or control inflation could support demand.
- China Demand Recovery: Data showing improved industrial output or stimulus from PBoC may strengthen global oil outlook.
Final Thoughts:
Price is at a pivot zone — breaking this wedge with strength could shift the short-to-midterm trend. Until then, this remains a "show me" breakout. Watch how the next 1–2 weekly candles close around the $74–$75 area to confirm direction.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.