📉 COIN Daily/Weekly — Setting up for Knife Action Below 235 🔪
Thesis:
Price action continues to mirror prior failed consolidations followed by sharp flushes. After weak consolidation near 277, we are seeing early signs of exhaustion. Current price sitting at 242.71, directly above a key pivot zone at 235. Historical behavior suggests we could see another aggressive leg lower if 235 breaks.
Key Levels:
🔑 235 — critical trigger level for downside.
🔻 208 — primary target (prior support + measured move target).
❌ 250-255 — invalidation zone on strong upside reclaim.
Historical Context:
Previous breakdowns off similar consolidations have produced sharp -24% to -37% drops within 35-42 days.
Current measured move targets a similar ~24% decline in 42 days to 209 area.
Weak consolidation above 235 usually precedes these knife moves.
Trigger Plan:
Watch for early week failed push into 242-245.
Breakdown through 235 triggers short entries.
Momentum into 208 target ideally within 1-2 weeks, though conservatively allowing for 42 days based on historical pattern.
Indicators (Supporting Bearish Bias):
📊 RSI stuck near neutral but rolling over.
📉 MACD losing bullish momentum.
🔻 Volume has historically spiked into breakdowns.
Summary:
Expecting a flush below 235 to 208 if weakness confirms. Quick failed rallies into 242-245 could offer ideal short entries. Any weekly close under 235 will confirm bearish momentum shift.
⚠️ As always, this is not financial advice — strictly my personal trade plan.
- Taz
Thesis:
Price action continues to mirror prior failed consolidations followed by sharp flushes. After weak consolidation near 277, we are seeing early signs of exhaustion. Current price sitting at 242.71, directly above a key pivot zone at 235. Historical behavior suggests we could see another aggressive leg lower if 235 breaks.
Key Levels:
🔑 235 — critical trigger level for downside.
🔻 208 — primary target (prior support + measured move target).
❌ 250-255 — invalidation zone on strong upside reclaim.
Historical Context:
Previous breakdowns off similar consolidations have produced sharp -24% to -37% drops within 35-42 days.
Current measured move targets a similar ~24% decline in 42 days to 209 area.
Weak consolidation above 235 usually precedes these knife moves.
Trigger Plan:
Watch for early week failed push into 242-245.
Breakdown through 235 triggers short entries.
Momentum into 208 target ideally within 1-2 weeks, though conservatively allowing for 42 days based on historical pattern.
Indicators (Supporting Bearish Bias):
📊 RSI stuck near neutral but rolling over.
📉 MACD losing bullish momentum.
🔻 Volume has historically spiked into breakdowns.
Summary:
Expecting a flush below 235 to 208 if weakness confirms. Quick failed rallies into 242-245 could offer ideal short entries. Any weekly close under 235 will confirm bearish momentum shift.
⚠️ As always, this is not financial advice — strictly my personal trade plan.
- Taz
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.