t's awkward when 'all models are wrong, some are merely useful' when i called 'the fear is in the streets' with a buy action forward. boy was i wrong (and so paid the price for that call)
but with -30% additional downside i've been stalking this patiently.. and +/- 5% diff i think This is it a good bottom as any now (you cant ever time them right) but merely highER probability of the bottom
Here is why.
Overall Price Action
• COIN appears to be trading within a broad upward‐sloping channel since last year’s lows, though recent sessions show a pullback from the high‐$300s down to the mid‐$100s.
• The stock has been staging multi‐month rallies followed by pronounced corrections, indicating that volatility remains high.
Short‐Term (Days to ~2 Weeks)
• Current Bias: Bearish/Consolidation - stay cautious
Reasoning: Momentum indicators (e.g. the stochastic overlays) are in lower ranges or rolling over from mid‐levels, and the daily timeframe readout references a bearish tilt with relatively weak trend strength (low ADX, sub‐50% probability).
Key Levels:
• Immediate Support: Around ~150–145 (a break below opens room toward ~130–125).
• Short‐Term Upside: A rebound and close above ~165–170 would help neutralize the immediate downtrend and could invite a bounce toward ~180.
• Confidence: Moderate (about 50%) given the mixed signals on momentum and the broader market volatility.
Near‐Term (2–6 Weeks)
• Current Bias: Cautiously Bullish if support holds; risk of deeper pullback if ~145 fails
Reasoning:
• The purple channel on the chart suggests that price may still be in a rising structure overall.
• If COIN defends that lower‐channel region near 130–150 and momentum begins to turn, a bounce toward the mid‐$180s or even low‐$200s is plausible.
• Conversely, if broader crypto markets or equities weaken further, the stock could see a retest of the lower trend boundary around the low‐$100s.
Key Levels:
• Upside Targets: ~185, then ~200–210 as a bigger pivot.
• Downside If Support Breaks: ~120–130.
• Confidence: Moderate (around 60%) on a bounce scenario, but keep watch for major support to confirm.
Long‐Term (6+ Weeks to Multiple Months)
Current Bias: Constructive but Volatile
Reasoning:
• The broader up‐channel hints COIN may be in a longer‐term recovery cycle from 2022 lows, but large swings remain likely due to the stock’s sensitivity to crypto sentiment.
• Sustained closes above ~$200–210 would solidify the bullish structure and open the door toward the mid‐$200s, possibly higher if the channel holds.
• A breakdown below ~$120 would negate the broader uptrend and suggest a return to deeper support in the double‐digit zone.
Key Levels:
• Main Resistance: ~250–270 (top portion of the channel if momentum truly resurges).
• Deep Support: ~100–120, critical to maintain a longer‐term bullish outlook.
• Confidence: Moderate‐Low (roughly 50%) given macro uncertainties; confirmation of trend strength would come from multiple weekly closes above or below these key thresholds.
So what do i think? its about Time-in-The-Market, not Timing-The-Market
The Bottom Line
Short Term: Leaning bearish unless price reclaims ~165–170.
Near Term: Watch ~145 and ~130–135 as critical support—if those levels hold, a push toward the high‐$100s is plausible.
Long Term: The up‐channel remains in play, but a break below ~120 would undermine the bullish structure. Upside targets could extend into the mid‐$200s if broader momentum and crypto sentiment remain supportive.
but with -30% additional downside i've been stalking this patiently.. and +/- 5% diff i think This is it a good bottom as any now (you cant ever time them right) but merely highER probability of the bottom
Here is why.
Overall Price Action
• COIN appears to be trading within a broad upward‐sloping channel since last year’s lows, though recent sessions show a pullback from the high‐$300s down to the mid‐$100s.
• The stock has been staging multi‐month rallies followed by pronounced corrections, indicating that volatility remains high.
Short‐Term (Days to ~2 Weeks)
• Current Bias: Bearish/Consolidation - stay cautious
Reasoning: Momentum indicators (e.g. the stochastic overlays) are in lower ranges or rolling over from mid‐levels, and the daily timeframe readout references a bearish tilt with relatively weak trend strength (low ADX, sub‐50% probability).
Key Levels:
• Immediate Support: Around ~150–145 (a break below opens room toward ~130–125).
• Short‐Term Upside: A rebound and close above ~165–170 would help neutralize the immediate downtrend and could invite a bounce toward ~180.
• Confidence: Moderate (about 50%) given the mixed signals on momentum and the broader market volatility.
Near‐Term (2–6 Weeks)
• Current Bias: Cautiously Bullish if support holds; risk of deeper pullback if ~145 fails
Reasoning:
• The purple channel on the chart suggests that price may still be in a rising structure overall.
• If COIN defends that lower‐channel region near 130–150 and momentum begins to turn, a bounce toward the mid‐$180s or even low‐$200s is plausible.
• Conversely, if broader crypto markets or equities weaken further, the stock could see a retest of the lower trend boundary around the low‐$100s.
Key Levels:
• Upside Targets: ~185, then ~200–210 as a bigger pivot.
• Downside If Support Breaks: ~120–130.
• Confidence: Moderate (around 60%) on a bounce scenario, but keep watch for major support to confirm.
Long‐Term (6+ Weeks to Multiple Months)
Current Bias: Constructive but Volatile
Reasoning:
• The broader up‐channel hints COIN may be in a longer‐term recovery cycle from 2022 lows, but large swings remain likely due to the stock’s sensitivity to crypto sentiment.
• Sustained closes above ~$200–210 would solidify the bullish structure and open the door toward the mid‐$200s, possibly higher if the channel holds.
• A breakdown below ~$120 would negate the broader uptrend and suggest a return to deeper support in the double‐digit zone.
Key Levels:
• Main Resistance: ~250–270 (top portion of the channel if momentum truly resurges).
• Deep Support: ~100–120, critical to maintain a longer‐term bullish outlook.
• Confidence: Moderate‐Low (roughly 50%) given macro uncertainties; confirmation of trend strength would come from multiple weekly closes above or below these key thresholds.
So what do i think? its about Time-in-The-Market, not Timing-The-Market
The Bottom Line
Short Term: Leaning bearish unless price reclaims ~165–170.
Near Term: Watch ~145 and ~130–135 as critical support—if those levels hold, a push toward the high‐$100s is plausible.
Long Term: The up‐channel remains in play, but a break below ~120 would undermine the bullish structure. Upside targets could extend into the mid‐$200s if broader momentum and crypto sentiment remain supportive.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.