5/29/24 - vrockstar - 
CRM - this should be on everyone's short list. visibility toward 7+ bn of fcf (don't dilute w/ options like many other smaller tech which i've been warning against + stock not broken) which means that's about a 2.5% yield. i think you could do better in 
AAPL at >3%, but again it's not software, nevermind stickier B2B. sub 30x PE for CRM (~28x) is reasonable given mid 20s EPS growth. don't love the HSD revenue growth - but at a $260 bn valuation it's not easy to grow like nvda, obviously. So all else equal, this should be a good result, i'm tempted to get long - as it's a good hiding spot in B2B software which is getting shot (more on this in posts to come), which i think could support the bid as well. the tape looks a bit messy into the open, we have some fed data coming today, inflation prints this friday, jobs next week. we're at the end of earnings season and only nvda is levitating these markets. my bias here is to be greedy and look for a better entry... let's see how the day shapes up. if we show some index resilience into 2H of the day and especially into the close, i'll probably swing long.
CRM - this should be on everyone's short list. visibility toward 7+ bn of fcf (don't dilute w/ options like many other smaller tech which i've been warning against + stock not broken) which means that's about a 2.5% yield. i think you could do better in AAPL at >3%, but again it's not software, nevermind stickier B2B. sub 30x PE for CRM (~28x) is reasonable given mid 20s EPS growth. don't love the HSD revenue growth - but at a $260 bn valuation it's not easy to grow like nvda, obviously. So all else equal, this should be a good result, i'm tempted to get long - as it's a good hiding spot in B2B software which is getting shot (more on this in posts to come), which i think could support the bid as well. the tape looks a bit messy into the open, we have some fed data coming today, inflation prints this friday, jobs next week. we're at the end of earnings season and only nvda is levitating these markets. my bias here is to be greedy and look for a better entry... let's see how the day shapes up. if we show some index resilience into 2H of the day and especially into the close, i'll probably swing long.Note
starting a 50 bps position here at $233. got shalack'd doing this with INTU the other week, so keeping it manageable. gl to all - lmk if you have addt'l thoughts.Note
i'm at a full size position here w/ stock down 21.5% today. i suspect i'm looking at 15-20% drawdown at most all else equal and the retrace is more likely than not as well - even considering heady mkt risk - higher rates etc.max position 5%. it's become core here. better than cash 6% fcf yield double digit growth, expanding margins. margin of safety is now priced in at these levels.
send it.
-V
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.