6/4/24 - vrockstar - 
CRWD - going to recycle a lot of the same logic i employed before i started publishing from late april. stock is in the same place. the issue really is a factor one since we've seen most of the other cyber and B2B report good #s and stocks struggle. even 
ZS, one of my top picks good #s, good guide, half the multiple of CRWD and dumped from the open.
conclusion: be careful here fam. it will be hard to buy a breakout in this tape, esp in such an important macro week (*cough* friday jobs) and where the upside is probably 10% (which you'd take off the table immediately) and the downside is 10-25% all else equal.
I'd guess the result is great and the reaction blows. that's my pt. i'm not bearish the name; i'd own it. but just not here, not now.
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repost my private comment:
4/26/24 - vrockstar - simply too expansive for 70x PE and 30-40% EPS cagr at most. 1.5% FCF fwd yield if i give credit for 1.5 bn on an EV of 70 ish is again probably "worth" the price assuming they can keep the momentum but this just seems like a steep ask in the current tap esp after the last print got sold hard and the stock has struggled to make new highs. would defn b a high quality LT pickup but need something of a discount here so setting the first level to re-address a take-look at slightly above 250. keep in mind fwd sales multiple here is probably still 12-13x which is super rich but could justify. have hard time paying 17x like today
CRWD - going to recycle a lot of the same logic i employed before i started publishing from late april. stock is in the same place. the issue really is a factor one since we've seen most of the other cyber and B2B report good #s and stocks struggle. even ZS, one of my top picks good #s, good guide, half the multiple of CRWD and dumped from the open.conclusion: be careful here fam. it will be hard to buy a breakout in this tape, esp in such an important macro week (*cough* friday jobs) and where the upside is probably 10% (which you'd take off the table immediately) and the downside is 10-25% all else equal.
I'd guess the result is great and the reaction blows. that's my pt. i'm not bearish the name; i'd own it. but just not here, not now.
--
repost my private comment:
4/26/24 - vrockstar - simply too expansive for 70x PE and 30-40% EPS cagr at most. 1.5% FCF fwd yield if i give credit for 1.5 bn on an EV of 70 ish is again probably "worth" the price assuming they can keep the momentum but this just seems like a steep ask in the current tap esp after the last print got sold hard and the stock has struggled to make new highs. would defn b a high quality LT pickup but need something of a discount here so setting the first level to re-address a take-look at slightly above 250. keep in mind fwd sales multiple here is probably still 12-13x which is super rich but could justify. have hard time paying 17x like today
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.