The Ancient Metric: Reflecting on Gold’s Financial Role
🟡The Ancient Metric: Reflecting on Gold’s Financial Role
Hard Money Lens: All asset ratios are expressed vs gold (XAUUSD) to:
• Strip out fiat currency distortion
• Reveal true purchasing power
• Treat gold as a timeless unit of account
________________________________________
📈 1. S&P 500 / Gold (SPX/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 1.88
• Jan 2025: 2.16
• Jul 2024: 2.26
• Jul 2018: 2.30
🔍 Interpretation:
• Down 18% from Jan 2025
• Down 18% over 7 years
• Not a crash nominally — but a stealth bear market in gold terms
✅ Conclusion:
Equities are quietly being devalued:
• Inflation is eroding fiat-based returns
• Excess valuations are being corrected
• Gold is quietly reclaiming its monetary role
________________________________________
🏠 2. Housing / Gold (CSUSHPINSA/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 0.10
• Jan 2025: 0.12
• Jul 2024: 0.13
• Jul 2018: 0.17
🔍 Interpretation:
• Down 41% in gold terms over 7 years
• Down 23% just since July 2024
• Indicates either:
• Gold rising faster than home prices
• Real estate weakening in true (inflation-adjusted) value
✅ Conclusion:
Housing is even more devalued than equities — potential deep value opportunity in hard-money terms.
________________________________________
₿ 3. Bitcoin / Gold (BTC/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 32
• Jan 2025: 37
• Jul 2024: 26
• Jul 2018: 6
🔍 Interpretation:
• Bitcoin is up >5× vs gold since 2018
• Peaked in Jan 2025, now -13%
• Still trading near historical highs
✅ Conclusion:
Bitcoin is the top performer, but:
• Showing signs of possible topping behavior
• Could be transitioning into a distribution phase
🧭 The Alpha View
🟤 1. We’re in a Secular Hard Money Shift
• Fiat-based assets are losing ground vs gold
• Gold is reasserting its role as a monetary base layer
________________________________________
🟠 2. Bitcoin Has Front-Run the Cycle
• Outperformance = speculative phase
• But stalling and could signal short term distribution
________________________________________
🟢 3. Real Estate: A Hard-Asset Value Play
• Crushed in gold terms = most undervalued major asset
• If inflation slows or rates fall, housing may outperform next
________________________________________
🔁 4. Macro Rotation is Forming
• From high-risk growth (tech) → to hard-income/value (real estate, dividend stocks)
• Gold remains the anchor and arbiter of value
________________________________________
🔮 Big Picture
We are witnessing a late-cycle monetary rotation:
• Fiat-based valuations are being repriced
• Gold is reasserting its dominance
• Housing market might be undervalued
• Bitcoin is still king, but risk/reward now elevated
The Defining Question: Is This the Cycle Where Bitcoin is Unchained?
Note: Market theorists frequently point to a 7-year cycle (7YC) as a natural rhythm in financial markets.
2018 Market Recap
• Rising geopolitical tensions
o U.S.-China trade war 1.0
• Tightening monetary policy
o Fed Rate hiked 4X’s & initiates QT
• Market volatility and equity corrections
o Major Crude Price Swings
• Emerging Markets Crisis
o Argentina & Turkey currency collapses
• The Crypto Winter
o BTC drops from nearly $20k to $4k
Follow on X TheAlphaView
Hard Money Lens: All asset ratios are expressed vs gold (XAUUSD) to:
• Strip out fiat currency distortion
• Reveal true purchasing power
• Treat gold as a timeless unit of account
________________________________________
📈 1. S&P 500 / Gold (SPX/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 1.88
• Jan 2025: 2.16
• Jul 2024: 2.26
• Jul 2018: 2.30
🔍 Interpretation:
• Down 18% from Jan 2025
• Down 18% over 7 years
• Not a crash nominally — but a stealth bear market in gold terms
✅ Conclusion:
Equities are quietly being devalued:
• Inflation is eroding fiat-based returns
• Excess valuations are being corrected
• Gold is quietly reclaiming its monetary role
________________________________________
🏠 2. Housing / Gold (CSUSHPINSA/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 0.10
• Jan 2025: 0.12
• Jul 2024: 0.13
• Jul 2018: 0.17
🔍 Interpretation:
• Down 41% in gold terms over 7 years
• Down 23% just since July 2024
• Indicates either:
• Gold rising faster than home prices
• Real estate weakening in true (inflation-adjusted) value
✅ Conclusion:
Housing is even more devalued than equities — potential deep value opportunity in hard-money terms.
________________________________________
₿ 3. Bitcoin / Gold (BTC/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 32
• Jan 2025: 37
• Jul 2024: 26
• Jul 2018: 6
🔍 Interpretation:
• Bitcoin is up >5× vs gold since 2018
• Peaked in Jan 2025, now -13%
• Still trading near historical highs
✅ Conclusion:
Bitcoin is the top performer, but:
• Showing signs of possible topping behavior
• Could be transitioning into a distribution phase
🧭 The Alpha View
🟤 1. We’re in a Secular Hard Money Shift
• Fiat-based assets are losing ground vs gold
• Gold is reasserting its role as a monetary base layer
________________________________________
🟠 2. Bitcoin Has Front-Run the Cycle
• Outperformance = speculative phase
• But stalling and could signal short term distribution
________________________________________
🟢 3. Real Estate: A Hard-Asset Value Play
• Crushed in gold terms = most undervalued major asset
• If inflation slows or rates fall, housing may outperform next
________________________________________
🔁 4. Macro Rotation is Forming
• From high-risk growth (tech) → to hard-income/value (real estate, dividend stocks)
• Gold remains the anchor and arbiter of value
________________________________________
🔮 Big Picture
We are witnessing a late-cycle monetary rotation:
• Fiat-based valuations are being repriced
• Gold is reasserting its dominance
• Housing market might be undervalued
• Bitcoin is still king, but risk/reward now elevated
The Defining Question: Is This the Cycle Where Bitcoin is Unchained?
Note: Market theorists frequently point to a 7-year cycle (7YC) as a natural rhythm in financial markets.
2018 Market Recap
• Rising geopolitical tensions
o U.S.-China trade war 1.0
• Tightening monetary policy
o Fed Rate hiked 4X’s & initiates QT
• Market volatility and equity corrections
o Major Crude Price Swings
• Emerging Markets Crisis
o Argentina & Turkey currency collapses
• The Crypto Winter
o BTC drops from nearly $20k to $4k
Follow on X TheAlphaView
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.