The DAX (GER40) is hovering just around 24500 – not far from recent highs – but momentum is fading and Friday’s typical “profit-taking weakness” is already setting in.
From a technical perspective, the index is stuck near VWAP with flat RSI and decreasing volume. Price has failed to convincingly break higher this week and is starting to roll over. Buyers look tired, and Friday is not usually their strongest day.
Fundamentally, things aren’t looking too solid either:
- European data continues to underwhelm.
- Global risk sentiment is shaky as everyone waits for potential fallout from the Trump–Putin meeting today.
- Inflation ghosts are creeping back in, and central banks remain as noncommittal as ever.
Conclusion for me:
I’m leaning short into into the day. If we start slipping below 24,400 with volume, I expect some acceleration.
T1: 24,410
T2: 24,300
T3: 24,100
The one unpredictable variable? Again - The world's leaders. Their random decisions can obliterate any setup in seconds. Markets follow structure... until a politician wakes up and chooses violence. Today is a special day with the upcoming Meeting - Be careful. On the other hand, - one negative news regarding this upcoming event can nuke all the high expectations that are already priced in, which, in my opinion, strenghtens this trade!
No trading advice – just how I see it.
From a technical perspective, the index is stuck near VWAP with flat RSI and decreasing volume. Price has failed to convincingly break higher this week and is starting to roll over. Buyers look tired, and Friday is not usually their strongest day.
Fundamentally, things aren’t looking too solid either:
- European data continues to underwhelm.
- Global risk sentiment is shaky as everyone waits for potential fallout from the Trump–Putin meeting today.
- Inflation ghosts are creeping back in, and central banks remain as noncommittal as ever.
Conclusion for me:
I’m leaning short into into the day. If we start slipping below 24,400 with volume, I expect some acceleration.
T1: 24,410
T2: 24,300
T3: 24,100
The one unpredictable variable? Again - The world's leaders. Their random decisions can obliterate any setup in seconds. Markets follow structure... until a politician wakes up and chooses violence. Today is a special day with the upcoming Meeting - Be careful. On the other hand, - one negative news regarding this upcoming event can nuke all the high expectations that are already priced in, which, in my opinion, strenghtens this trade!
No trading advice – just how I see it.
Trade active
Opened Position at 24500 - Short.Note
It went back to retest 24500. Expecting a drop from here now, load your bags :) Note
And that was fast, down to 24450 again. Let's break that and head south to 24410 for the first Target Area.Note
Target 1 (24,410) has been hit.I’m closing 50 % of my position here to lock in some profits.
Retail Sales data (US) will be released in about 1 hour. These events often inject volatility – and it’s generally smart not to be overexposed heading into them. No matter how clean the setup looks, a surprise print can flip the script instantly.
Closing part of the position now gives the trade room to breathe:
If numbers come in better than expected, a temporary up-spike could hit stops – the realized gains help neutralize that.
If the data disappoints, I’ll let the remaining half run toward T2 and T3.
Let’s see how the next hours unfold.
No trading advice – just my current positioning.
Trade closed manually
Closed manually at 24330 with great profit. Won't be holding over the weekend, especially with the unclarity about these evenings outcome. Have a nice weekend!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.