Now that the first trading day of August has printed, can one reliably forecast the possible month based on just the first day? I am inclined to believe that one can with a small amount of accuracy. Not perfect.
There are two types of monthly cycles when the first traded day is a bearish candle right from the open of the month.
Type 1 is a bearish trending cycle that trends lower and lower. It is then followed up by small number of bullish pullbacks halfway through the month before rolling back over and closing near the lows.
Type 2, more common, is when the first traded day is bearish right from the get-go as well, trades lower but reverses near the beginning of the month before trading higher than the open and forming a bullish bar.
So, in my opinion, there are only two probably outcomes for August.
Type 1:
Type 2:
There are two types of monthly cycles when the first traded day is a bearish candle right from the open of the month.
Type 1 is a bearish trending cycle that trends lower and lower. It is then followed up by small number of bullish pullbacks halfway through the month before rolling back over and closing near the lows.
Type 2, more common, is when the first traded day is bearish right from the get-go as well, trades lower but reverses near the beginning of the month before trading higher than the open and forming a bullish bar.
So, in my opinion, there are only two probably outcomes for August.
Type 1:
Type 2:
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.