Updated

A small push up before the fall?

It looks like the DOW is getting ready to fall within the next few days ...let's see

Note

Note

I think we mess around in this range for 3 weeks or so before heading down...market slowed way down. I'm anticipating a bottom of some sort near the second week of June. In the meanwhile one can swing trade a bit but it can be pretty risky to do so. Look where the greed is and you will find some swing trade opportunities and then don't be greedy :) ...take care

Note

Just an idea ...could be blown out of the water on Monday. Good luck

Note

Still a valid idea thus far but we shall see...I updated the targets and timeline. Again just a thought. Pair with your own analysis.

Note

updated idea...

Note

Another trader I follow called this a few days ago... I also see this now

Trade closed manually

Since the original idea is now void I'm closing it. I am curious if the IHS will play out fully or if the market will fall down at the bottom of the right shoulder. We shall see...Take Care!

Note

hmm ...looks weak. Maybe more like this and a higher probability of the right shoulder failing IMO. Let's see how this plays out. Take care

Note

small update...we shall see

Note

I'm pulling the plug...looks like down without a last push up but we shall see... good luck

Note

It may take a bit for this to come on down ...

Note

I lost my patience ...looks like we are back to the original IHS without the decline...good luck

Note

I leaned it again down and to the right because its fun :) anyhow let's see if it has another push up or if this is all she wrote. good luck

Note

meh...not looking good IMO. Good luck

Note

Current thought...take care

Note

another idea...one last spike up. This is out of gas IMO. Let's see. Take care

Note

Longer term idea ... good luck!

Note

updated idea... Will the big drop finally happen? Let's see. Good luck

Note

updated idea...it is either going to bounce or head down. Let's see

Note

pushing out the timeline ..same idea. Good luck

Note

updated idea...

Note

looks more like this to me now... good luck

Note

still thinking down ...maybe end of July. Good luck

Note

I think DJI will mess around in this area (after a small pullback) for the last time until say the end of June and then I think July will be bloody and recovery may take until the end of the year...what reason does this market have to go up now? IMO there are a lot more reasons for it to go down. It would be a head scratcher to me with the election year coming up for it to keep climbing unless we are entering a bull market...value time is coming IMO but we shall see. Markets are random and I am still learning. Take Care!

Trade closed manually

Closing this idea as I don't plan to update it in the future. The target shown above is still my thought so down to 30k area. At the moment it sure doesn't look like it but things could change. If it doesn't reach 30k, then I'm wrong and I will adjust my trading plan (back to the drawing board). Keep SAFE (banking act) :) Good Luck and take care

Note

Maybe a slow grind up until the end of July then down until the end of Nov?
Take Care!

Note

small modification...good luck

Note

updated idea...good luck

Note

my thought ..take care

Note

Getting close to its target IMO...let's see

Note

target reached...unless this is truly a larger IHS in which it will retest and can change the trading plan. Good Luck

Note

change of perspective ... zooming out. Good luck

Note

smaller timeframe ..may hit the top this week. Take Care

Note

Now its getting very close (.5-1.0% up from 35.1k) to its target IMO but let's see. Good luck

Note

target the same ...I keep having different thoughts on the "how". Wednesday will be interesting. Take Care

Note

another thought ...

Note

same thought as above...changing timelines a bit which I will continue to do unless DJI heads up from here which will of course void this analysis. Good luck

Note

Think this rise is insane? So do I and I read the following this morning - "If the Dow finishes higher Thursday, it will mark its 14th straight day of gains in what would be its longest win streak since June 1897, according to Dow Jones Market Data." This doesn't add up. I agree with Peter Schiff in that the fed is lying to us. Take Care

Note

updated path idea...good luck

Note

updated path idea ...good luck!

Note

Looks like maybe a slow grind up before the decline but we shall see...time will tell the path but down is in the cards IMO...take care

Note

Just a thought ...is it finally time for the market to head down from here? We shall see but I changed my target to 31k instead of 30k. Probably won't post for a while as this just needs more time to develop. Going to take some patience IMO. Take care

Note

same idea as above ...a bit longer term. How will this all play out? Good Luck

Note

Updated idea with different path...inverted cup and handle starting us off? Let's see if DJI can bounce after about .6% down today or tomorrow. Next week should be bullish and if that's the case, there will be some very good swing trade opportunities IMO. Good Luck

Note

I think DJI will find support today and complete the inverted cup and handle ...let's see. The drop was just too controlled IMO. take care

Note

Looks like more down ..then rise up to the handle before the Jackson Hole speech and then oh crap, we don't like what Powell had to say and dump (sigh). We shall see.. take care

Note

is DJI ready for a rise yet? We shall see...take care!

Note

rising ...won't be for long IMO but of course let's see how it plays out. take care!

Note

target hit ...let's see what happens the next few days. Take Care!

Note

Finally it appears the time has come. If it doesn't go down now it probably won't IMO. Take Care

Note

same idea ...different timing. Good luck!

Note

34.3k test next week (HS neckline) or 35k at the end of the month (ascending wedge retest). Well neither may come try but this is my thought...Oct tends to be bullish so we have this on our side but after that it doesn't look that good to me as the next leg down (LL to next support) may be in play. We will see. Take care

Note

DJI oversold ... are we going to see history repeat itself? Just an idea ok...food for thought. Disregard if you could care less please. Take Care

Note

or...will this happen similar to Aug 2015? pair with your own analysis. If this comes true I estimate we have two weeks ish or so before the big drop (if it happens). Take Care

Note

updated thought and timing ..good luck!

Note

First leg down is prob deeper than what I show above. Pair with your own analysis. Take Care!

Note

updated idea ... more down seems to be in the cards after a possible rise up to the 33.7k area or 1.75% from the current location by next week, then the further decline it would seem would be in play IMO. In this analysis, I have a lesser drop than shown above by around Nov 20th. Obviously timing is impossible to predict so its just a placeholder date. Good luck!

Note

just an updated chart...take care

Note

Will it keep rising? OBV shows its about out of gas IMO. Good luck.

Note

Extended the target date in case of a government shutdown which seems inevitable at this point in time IMO. I guess we will see what the news is tomorrow and if any progress is made. Big chasm between parties and amplified since the last shutdown threat with the ousting. Moody downgrade is also not awesome. Take Care

Note

I am going to stop posting for a while after this one, but here is an idea on the big picture out to 2025. Take care and trade safe.

Note

If there is a CR this week it will change this analysis...

Note

Isn't there a song that says everybody plays the fool sometimes :) ugh. Here is my thought now. I will abstain from posting for a while. Good luck to everyone

Note

Looks like its going for 34,350. Let's see. Happy trading!

Note

Christmas rally after a dip? Will be interesting to see this play out this week. I expect big movement. Good luck

Note

This idea makes a bit more sense to me but we shall see. Good luck

Note

Here is a bullish idea. The idea here is up until new ATH near election month and then a pretty large sell off thereafter. It's good to be prepared for whatever the market has in store so this is just a different viewpoint. Sort of feels like the dot com bubble days in some ways. Good luck

Trade closed manually

last update as the original idea is bearish and now the idea is bullish. Good luck!

elliott77

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

elliott77