Hello friends.
DJT is a very interesting stock going into the election. It's Trump's stock, and he owns more than half the shares which have recently been unlocked for sale, although he has promised not to sell. The election will have a large impact on how the stock price moves, and it's coming up soon on November 5th. The odds for the election are currently priced at 55% for Trump and 45% for Kamala, so it's nearly a coin toss as to who wins.
In terms of how the stock will move based on the outcome, I would expect that in the case of Trump winning, it will gap up around 50-75%, and in the case of him losing it will gap down 40-60%.
What's more interesting to me than betting on the election itself is taking a position afterwards. If Trump were to win the election, he would absolutely want to take that big liquidity opportunity to sell his massive stake in the stock, which would drive the price down by a lot. Because of this, shorting right after a Trump victory gets baked into the price could be a very good idea.
On the other hand if he loses, the stock will almost certainly gap down by a lot. Trump will still be holding his bag, and he will lose a lot of money on paper but it's okay because he knows that he can just let the stock drop, play dead for a few months, and then pump it again later to gain his exit liquidity. He has no reason to sell right as all the retail traders are also selling, since this will just tank the stock rapidly and give him a bad price. So the idea in that situation would be to wait for the stock to lose it's retail interest, and then buy and hold it until Trump manipulates the stock upwards and exit into his pump.
DJT is a very interesting stock going into the election. It's Trump's stock, and he owns more than half the shares which have recently been unlocked for sale, although he has promised not to sell. The election will have a large impact on how the stock price moves, and it's coming up soon on November 5th. The odds for the election are currently priced at 55% for Trump and 45% for Kamala, so it's nearly a coin toss as to who wins.
In terms of how the stock will move based on the outcome, I would expect that in the case of Trump winning, it will gap up around 50-75%, and in the case of him losing it will gap down 40-60%.
What's more interesting to me than betting on the election itself is taking a position afterwards. If Trump were to win the election, he would absolutely want to take that big liquidity opportunity to sell his massive stake in the stock, which would drive the price down by a lot. Because of this, shorting right after a Trump victory gets baked into the price could be a very good idea.
On the other hand if he loses, the stock will almost certainly gap down by a lot. Trump will still be holding his bag, and he will lose a lot of money on paper but it's okay because he knows that he can just let the stock drop, play dead for a few months, and then pump it again later to gain his exit liquidity. He has no reason to sell right as all the retail traders are also selling, since this will just tank the stock rapidly and give him a bad price. So the idea in that situation would be to wait for the stock to lose it's retail interest, and then buy and hold it until Trump manipulates the stock upwards and exit into his pump.
Note
I don't think that Trump will sell his shares before the election, since this would damage his political reputation at an important time. So he should be selling afterwards. That means the bottom line is this is bearish overall. The DJT company itself has a fundamental value around $0.00.Note
With yesterday's price action and the sheer amount of volume that has come in, I'm starting to think Trump might have gone ahead and sold a good chunk of his position. We're at peak liquidity along with a great price, so it makes sense. If word does come out that Trump has sold, I expect the stock to gap down 25% and continue to fall for a couple of days. That flash drop risk is reason enough to be short at the moment when combined with the downside momentum if you ask me.Note
Clearly he didn't sell yet or it would have had to have been reported by now. With that in mind no position and waiting for the real opportunity. Note
There is definitely enough liquidity that Trump would be able to liquidate his position here, but the question is will he hold through the election to try and make a bigger profit or sell now? The odds for Trump winning are now 2/3rds and the election is coming up in a week so things are getting very interesting. I have some puts already and I'm hoping he will win the election so I can get a bigger position for a better deal.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.