The relationship between the US dollar (USD), the 10-year Treasury bond yield, and bond prices is tightly interconnected and crucial for global markets.
1. 10-Year Bond Yield and Bond Price
Inverse Relationship:
As the yield on the 10-year Treasury rises, the price of the bond falls, and vice versa. This is because the bond’s coupon payment is fixed; when new bonds are issued with higher yields, existing bonds with lower coupons become less attractive, so their prices drop to compensate.
Recent Movement:
In May and early June 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.18% to around 4.50%, a move of over 30 basis points, driven by strong economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer.
2. 10-Year Bond Yield and the Dollar (DXY)
Direct Relationship:
Generally, when the 10-year Treasury yield rises, the US dollar strengthens. Higher yields attract foreign investment into US assets, increasing demand for USD.
Recent Example:
After the stronger-than-expected May jobs report, the 10-year yield jumped to 4.50% from 4.3% on thursday and the dollar index (DXY) also rose, reflecting investor expectations of prolonged high US rates and robust economic performance.
3. Bond Price and the Dollar
When bond prices fall (and yields rise), it often signals expectations for higher interest rates or inflation, both of which tend to support a stronger dollar as investors seek higher returns in USD assets.
Conversely, when bond prices rise (and yields fall), it can indicate economic uncertainty or expectations of rate cuts, which may weaken the dollar.
Key Takeaway
Rising 10-year Treasury yields lead to falling bond prices and typically a stronger US dollar, as higher yields attract global capital seeking better returns.
This dynamic is especially pronounced when strong US economic data or hawkish Fed expectations are in play, as seen in the recent market reaction to the robust US jobs report.
#dxy#dollar #gold
1. 10-Year Bond Yield and Bond Price
Inverse Relationship:
As the yield on the 10-year Treasury rises, the price of the bond falls, and vice versa. This is because the bond’s coupon payment is fixed; when new bonds are issued with higher yields, existing bonds with lower coupons become less attractive, so their prices drop to compensate.
Recent Movement:
In May and early June 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.18% to around 4.50%, a move of over 30 basis points, driven by strong economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer.
2. 10-Year Bond Yield and the Dollar (DXY)
Direct Relationship:
Generally, when the 10-year Treasury yield rises, the US dollar strengthens. Higher yields attract foreign investment into US assets, increasing demand for USD.
Recent Example:
After the stronger-than-expected May jobs report, the 10-year yield jumped to 4.50% from 4.3% on thursday and the dollar index (DXY) also rose, reflecting investor expectations of prolonged high US rates and robust economic performance.
3. Bond Price and the Dollar
When bond prices fall (and yields rise), it often signals expectations for higher interest rates or inflation, both of which tend to support a stronger dollar as investors seek higher returns in USD assets.
Conversely, when bond prices rise (and yields fall), it can indicate economic uncertainty or expectations of rate cuts, which may weaken the dollar.
Key Takeaway
Rising 10-year Treasury yields lead to falling bond prices and typically a stronger US dollar, as higher yields attract global capital seeking better returns.
This dynamic is especially pronounced when strong US economic data or hawkish Fed expectations are in play, as seen in the recent market reaction to the robust US jobs report.
#dxy#dollar #gold
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.