DXY H4 – Dollar Weakens Ahead of PPI Release | Is the Market Pricing in a Fed Pivot?
🌐 Macro & Fundamental Context
As we head into the New York session on June 12, the market’s attention shifts to one critical data point: the US PPI (Producer Price Index). Following the softer-than-expected CPI reading of 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.5% forecast), the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply—signaling fading inflation pressure and reigniting rate cut expectations.
✅ Bearish Fundamentals Building for the USD:
CPI miss fuels Fed rate cut bets (currently ~65% chance for September per FedWatch Tool).
US Treasury yields are easing, reflecting the market’s pricing of a less aggressive Fed.
Risk assets rallying as capital flows rotate away from USD into gold, equities, and long-duration bonds.
If today’s PPI also comes in below forecast, it could confirm a deeper correction in DXY. Conversely, a surprise PPI upside might trigger a short-term pullback.
📉 Technical Analysis – H4 Timeframe
🔹 Overall Trend:
DXY is locked within a clearly defined descending channel, with a consistent Lower High – Lower Low structure holding since late May.
🔹 Key Technical Zones:
Short-term resistance: 98.548 – likely to act as a ceiling unless PPI surprises to the upside.
Immediate support: 97.966 – a break below opens the door toward the key support zone at 97.191, which aligns with previous FVG imbalance and multi-timeframe demand.
🔹 EMA Structure:
Price remains below all major EMAs (13 – 34 – 89 – 200), confirming persistent bearish pressure.
EMA13 is currently acting as dynamic resistance on H4, pressing down on price.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Flow Insight
Investors are rotating out of USD as inflation fears fade and Fed easing expectations increase.
Risk-on sentiment is returning, benefiting gold and stocks while weighing on DXY.
However, a hot PPI print could spook the market briefly, leading to a corrective bounce in the Dollar before the trend resumes.
🔍 Scenarios to Watch:
PPI comes in lower than expected:
DXY may retest 98.548 resistance and reject lower.
Next targets: 97.966 → 97.191
PPI surprises to the upside:
Technical bounce toward 98.5–98.8 possible.
But trend remains bearish unless price reclaims 99.2+ zone.
✅ Conclusion
DXY remains under pressure from both macro and technical angles. The PPI report will be the next catalyst that determines whether this is a short-term dip or the continuation of a broader USD downtrend.
🎯 Tactical view: Favour short positions on DXY if price bounces into resistance and PPI supports the disinflation narrative. Target: 97.1 and below.
🌐 Macro & Fundamental Context
As we head into the New York session on June 12, the market’s attention shifts to one critical data point: the US PPI (Producer Price Index). Following the softer-than-expected CPI reading of 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.5% forecast), the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply—signaling fading inflation pressure and reigniting rate cut expectations.
✅ Bearish Fundamentals Building for the USD:
CPI miss fuels Fed rate cut bets (currently ~65% chance for September per FedWatch Tool).
US Treasury yields are easing, reflecting the market’s pricing of a less aggressive Fed.
Risk assets rallying as capital flows rotate away from USD into gold, equities, and long-duration bonds.
If today’s PPI also comes in below forecast, it could confirm a deeper correction in DXY. Conversely, a surprise PPI upside might trigger a short-term pullback.
📉 Technical Analysis – H4 Timeframe
🔹 Overall Trend:
DXY is locked within a clearly defined descending channel, with a consistent Lower High – Lower Low structure holding since late May.
🔹 Key Technical Zones:
Short-term resistance: 98.548 – likely to act as a ceiling unless PPI surprises to the upside.
Immediate support: 97.966 – a break below opens the door toward the key support zone at 97.191, which aligns with previous FVG imbalance and multi-timeframe demand.
🔹 EMA Structure:
Price remains below all major EMAs (13 – 34 – 89 – 200), confirming persistent bearish pressure.
EMA13 is currently acting as dynamic resistance on H4, pressing down on price.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Flow Insight
Investors are rotating out of USD as inflation fears fade and Fed easing expectations increase.
Risk-on sentiment is returning, benefiting gold and stocks while weighing on DXY.
However, a hot PPI print could spook the market briefly, leading to a corrective bounce in the Dollar before the trend resumes.
🔍 Scenarios to Watch:
PPI comes in lower than expected:
DXY may retest 98.548 resistance and reject lower.
Next targets: 97.966 → 97.191
PPI surprises to the upside:
Technical bounce toward 98.5–98.8 possible.
But trend remains bearish unless price reclaims 99.2+ zone.
✅ Conclusion
DXY remains under pressure from both macro and technical angles. The PPI report will be the next catalyst that determines whether this is a short-term dip or the continuation of a broader USD downtrend.
🎯 Tactical view: Favour short positions on DXY if price bounces into resistance and PPI supports the disinflation narrative. Target: 97.1 and below.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.