🇺🇸💣 Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect 📉⚠️
Hey Traders,
FXPROFESSOR here with a deep-dive update on the Dollar Index (DXY) – and this one hits both technicals and macro geopolitics.
🧠 Macro Context:
For decades, the U.S. strategically outsourced much of its basic manufacturing capacity to China—everything from screws, cables, plastics, and circuit boards. This freed America to focus on high-margin sectors like technology, finance, and defense innovation.
But this efficiency came at a cost: dependency. You can't be the military and economic hegemon of the world if you don’t manufacture your own basic components. That’s the foundation of hard power—and Trump understands this well.
🔁 Now Trump is trying to reverse that.
He knows America can’t win long-term without reclaiming production and export competitiveness – and a strong dollar kills that dream.
So what’s the play?
✅ Trump brings the volatility
✅ Fed stays cautious
✅ Dollar weakens... but without actual rate cuts
That’s the scary part 👇
📉 💵 Dollar Strength vs. Treasury Stress
This is also why the U.S. Treasury market is under stress.
If the U.S. wants to rebuild domestic production, reduce trade deficits, and support massive fiscal spending, it needs to weaken the dollar and attract internal capital—not depend on foreign buyers of debt.
A strong dollar = trade imbalance, hollowed industry, and rising debt service costs.
A normalized dollar = controlled exports, internal manufacturing, and a potential realignment of global capital flows.
📉 The Chart: "The Year of the Normalized Dollar"
🟡 This is a continuation of the same chart I published over a year ago.
Key Rejection Zone: 100.965 (former support, now resistance)
Current Trajectory: Approaching my long-held target at 94.677
Macro Message: The dollar is dropping without a Fed pivot
Worrying Signal: If we hit major support while the Fed stays tight... the entire market may need to reprice expectations. That could shake equities and crypto alike.
🧊 This is not a clean-cut dollar short anymore. It’s already priced in, and that’s why I’m spooked.
🧭 What I’m Watching:
Will Trump’s trade war accelerate this move?
Will Powell finally cut in September—or double down?
Will the support at 94.5 hold, or break and open a much larger macro shift?
This chart is no longer just technical. It’s political. It’s strategic. It’s a chessboard for hegemony.
🎥 FULL 20-min video breakdown is now live!
I cover DXY, Bitcoin, tech stocks, gold, silver, DAX, BTC.D and much more
Watch it if you want the full map of what I’m thinking this week.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Hey Traders,
FXPROFESSOR here with a deep-dive update on the Dollar Index (DXY) – and this one hits both technicals and macro geopolitics.
🧠 Macro Context:
For decades, the U.S. strategically outsourced much of its basic manufacturing capacity to China—everything from screws, cables, plastics, and circuit boards. This freed America to focus on high-margin sectors like technology, finance, and defense innovation.
But this efficiency came at a cost: dependency. You can't be the military and economic hegemon of the world if you don’t manufacture your own basic components. That’s the foundation of hard power—and Trump understands this well.
🔁 Now Trump is trying to reverse that.
He knows America can’t win long-term without reclaiming production and export competitiveness – and a strong dollar kills that dream.
So what’s the play?
✅ Trump brings the volatility
✅ Fed stays cautious
✅ Dollar weakens... but without actual rate cuts
That’s the scary part 👇
📉 💵 Dollar Strength vs. Treasury Stress
This is also why the U.S. Treasury market is under stress.
A strong dollar = trade imbalance, hollowed industry, and rising debt service costs.
A normalized dollar = controlled exports, internal manufacturing, and a potential realignment of global capital flows.
📉 The Chart: "The Year of the Normalized Dollar"
🟡 This is a continuation of the same chart I published over a year ago.
Key Rejection Zone: 100.965 (former support, now resistance)
Current Trajectory: Approaching my long-held target at 94.677
Macro Message: The dollar is dropping without a Fed pivot
Worrying Signal: If we hit major support while the Fed stays tight... the entire market may need to reprice expectations. That could shake equities and crypto alike.
🧊 This is not a clean-cut dollar short anymore. It’s already priced in, and that’s why I’m spooked.
🧭 What I’m Watching:
Will Trump’s trade war accelerate this move?
Will Powell finally cut in September—or double down?
Will the support at 94.5 hold, or break and open a much larger macro shift?
This chart is no longer just technical. It’s political. It’s strategic. It’s a chessboard for hegemony.
🎥 FULL 20-min video breakdown is now live!
I cover DXY, Bitcoin, tech stocks, gold, silver, DAX, BTC.D and much more
Watch it if you want the full map of what I’m thinking this week.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
🌍 All in one place → fxprofessor.com
🧠 Free FXPROFESSOR AI on ChatGPT
🔧 Top tools to level UP your trading
💹 Best crypto, forex & stock deals
📣 Telegram: t.me/fxprofessor88
💥 I don’t follow trends. I build the tools to catch them!
🧠 Free FXPROFESSOR AI on ChatGPT
🔧 Top tools to level UP your trading
💹 Best crypto, forex & stock deals
📣 Telegram: t.me/fxprofessor88
💥 I don’t follow trends. I build the tools to catch them!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🌍 All in one place → fxprofessor.com
🧠 Free FXPROFESSOR AI on ChatGPT
🔧 Top tools to level UP your trading
💹 Best crypto, forex & stock deals
📣 Telegram: t.me/fxprofessor88
💥 I don’t follow trends. I build the tools to catch them!
🧠 Free FXPROFESSOR AI on ChatGPT
🔧 Top tools to level UP your trading
💹 Best crypto, forex & stock deals
📣 Telegram: t.me/fxprofessor88
💥 I don’t follow trends. I build the tools to catch them!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.