Short

ENPH Earnings Trade Setup – JULY 22, 2025

🔋 ENPH Earnings Trade Setup – JULY 22, 2025
🌘 Enphase Energy: Oversold or More Pain Ahead? Bearish Setup in Play

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📉 1. FUNDAMENTALS SNAPSHOT

📈 Revenue Growth: +35.2% (TTM) – strong, but…
❌ Recent EPS Misses: -3.17%, -15.21% → Poor execution
💥 Margins:
• Net: 10.4%
• EBITDA: 15.9% → Compression risk
⚠️ Guidance: Inconsistent + failed beat/raise trend
📉 Goldman Sachs PT: $32 (Bearish downgrade)

🧠 Fundamental Score: 5/10 – Fast growth, but fading sentiment

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📉 2. OPTIONS FLOW SNAPSHOT

📍 Key Activity: Bearish flow near ATM puts
📊 Implied Volatility: Elevated → IV crush expected
📉 Put/Call Skew: Heavily skewed toward puts
📉 Sector: Solar weakness + rising rates + policy risk

📟 Options Flow Score: 6/10 – Caution dominates

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📉 3. TECHNICAL SETUP

📉 Price: $39.66 (Below 20D: $40.88, 50D: $42.51)
📊 Volume: 1.23x avg, mostly on red days = Selling pressure
📉 RSI: 33.9 → Weak momentum, possible breakdown
📍 Support: $39.00 📍 Resistance: $43.00

📈 Technical Score: 4/10 – Weak setup into earnings

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🧭 4. MACRO & SECTOR OUTLOOK

🌞 Solar Sector: Under pressure → higher rates + uncertain subsidies
🧯 Market Sentiment: Turning defensive on growth
📉 Macro Score: 5/10 – Long-term potential, short-term pain

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🎯 DIRECTIONAL BIAS:

🔻 Moderate Bearish – 75% Confidence
→ Recent analyst downgrades, bearish flow, poor guidance history, and a weak chart setup signal downside risk

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🔻 TRADE IDEA

🔹 BUY $39 Put exp. 07/25 @ $1.02
🎯 Target: $3.60+ → Stock < $35.50
⚠️ Stop Loss: $0.51
📅 Entry: Pre-Earnings Close (Jul 22, AMC)
💰 RR Ratio: ~3.5:1 → High leverage, tightly controlled risk

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🔐 RISK PLAN

💼 Position Size: 1 contract
📉 Max Risk: $1.02 (Premium only)
🎯 Target Gain: +250%
⏱️ Exit Window: Within 2 hrs post-earnings to avoid theta + IV crush

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🧬 TRADE DETAILS (JSON Format)

{
"instrument": "ENPH",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 39.00,
"expiry": "2025-07-25",
"confidence": 75,
"profit_target": 3.60,
"stop_loss": 0.51,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 1.02,
"entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close",
"earnings_date": "2025-07-22",
"earnings_time": "AMC",
"expected_move": -5.0,
"iv_rank": 0.75,
"signal_publish_time": "2025-07-22 14:57:55 UTC-04:00"
}

⸻

#ENPH #EarningsPlay #PutOptions #SolarStocks #OptionsTrading #ENPHBearish #VolatilitySetup #TradingViewReady

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