Overview
Higher-timeframe trend has shifted lower. After failing at ~6,476, price broke the 6,446 shelf and printed a new low near 6,419 with expanding volume. As long as we remain below 6,463, I keep a short bias and will fade bounces into supply.
Key Levels
• Line-in-the-sand: 6,463
• Resistance / Sell zones: 6,433–6,436, 6,445–6,447, 6,469–6,471, 6,476
• Supports / downside magnets: 6,419–6,418, 6,406–6,403, 6,392–6,388, 6,382–6,376
Primary Plan — Bearish continuation
• Prefer selling failed retests into 6,433–6,436 or 6,445–6,447.
• Targets: first back to 6,419–6,418, then 6,406–6,403, and if momentum persists 6,392–6,388 / 6,382–6,376.
• Confirmation I want to see: intraday rejection wicks at the zone, momentum rolling over, and sellers stepping back in.
Alternative — Breakdown
• If price accepts below 6,418, I’ll look for continuation toward 6,403, then 6,392 / 6,376.
Invalidation / Neutralization
• Reclaiming 6,463 neutralizes the immediate short bias.
• Acceptance ≥ 6,471–6,476 opens squeeze risk toward 6,491 / 6,500; I’d stand aside on shorts until structure turns back down.
Event Risk (ET) — Wed 08/20
• 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
• 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• 13:00 U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction
• 14:00 FOMC Minutes (Jul meeting)
Note: Expect headline-driven volatility around 14:00—I avoid initiating new positions into the release.
Posting Notes
This idea reflects levels visible on 1D/4H/1H (with 30m/15m for execution). I’ll update intraday if acceptance/rejection flips at the zones.
Higher-timeframe trend has shifted lower. After failing at ~6,476, price broke the 6,446 shelf and printed a new low near 6,419 with expanding volume. As long as we remain below 6,463, I keep a short bias and will fade bounces into supply.
Key Levels
• Line-in-the-sand: 6,463
• Resistance / Sell zones: 6,433–6,436, 6,445–6,447, 6,469–6,471, 6,476
• Supports / downside magnets: 6,419–6,418, 6,406–6,403, 6,392–6,388, 6,382–6,376
Primary Plan — Bearish continuation
• Prefer selling failed retests into 6,433–6,436 or 6,445–6,447.
• Targets: first back to 6,419–6,418, then 6,406–6,403, and if momentum persists 6,392–6,388 / 6,382–6,376.
• Confirmation I want to see: intraday rejection wicks at the zone, momentum rolling over, and sellers stepping back in.
Alternative — Breakdown
• If price accepts below 6,418, I’ll look for continuation toward 6,403, then 6,392 / 6,376.
Invalidation / Neutralization
• Reclaiming 6,463 neutralizes the immediate short bias.
• Acceptance ≥ 6,471–6,476 opens squeeze risk toward 6,491 / 6,500; I’d stand aside on shorts until structure turns back down.
Event Risk (ET) — Wed 08/20
• 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
• 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• 13:00 U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction
• 14:00 FOMC Minutes (Jul meeting)
Note: Expect headline-driven volatility around 14:00—I avoid initiating new positions into the release.
Posting Notes
This idea reflects levels visible on 1D/4H/1H (with 30m/15m for execution). I’ll update intraday if acceptance/rejection flips at the zones.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.