I’ve spotted a striking resemblance between the current price action and the 2018 market structure. This emerging fractal might be a key to anticipating what comes next.
🧩 Similarities between the 2018–2020 and 2025 corrections
SPY 
MES1! 
SPX500USD ES1! SPX :
Technical similarities:
🌍 Key macro parallels:
🌐 Trade risks: 2018 vs 2025
– 2018: escalation of the US–China trade war
– 2025: rising global protectionism, supply chain pressures, and tariffs
This leads to higher costs → margin compression
In both cases, risks to global demand and corporate earnings
This fractal aligns well with both of my long-term wave count scenarios:
Base scenario:
We’re inside a large impulse, where wave 3 is experiencing a classic extension. This implies the bull market could stretch into the 2030s, with smoother phases of growth and distribution. In this view, the current structure resembles a second wave forming as an rFL.
Alternative scenario:
The ongoing correction is wave 4 of a large cycle. After this volatile phase, a final rally — the terminal wave of this supercycle — is expected to follow.
🧩 Similarities between the 2018–2020 and 2025 corrections
SPY MES1! SPX500USD ES1! SPX :Technical similarities:
- Drawdown depth: roughly ~21% from peak to bottom
- Correction shape: similar wave structure — a double zigzag (dZ)
- Reversal dynamic: V-shaped bottom followed by a smooth, rounded recovery to ATH without sharp retracements
- Behavior around key MAs:
– test of the 200-week MA as support
– brief breakdown below the 200-day MA, then quick reclaim (fake-out) - Volume profile: increased volume during the selloff, resembling capitulation before reversal
🌍 Key macro parallels:
- Fed tightening cycle: Both periods saw interest rate hikes and QT against a backdrop of strong economic data.
- Policy shift: In both cases, Powell started with a hawkish tone and softened it after the correction (2019: “mid-cycle adjustment” with three rate cuts).
- Strong labor market: Unemployment hovered near 50-year lows (~3.5% in 2019; 3.4% in 2023), suggesting an overheated economy.
🌐 Trade risks: 2018 vs 2025
– 2018: escalation of the US–China trade war
– 2025: rising global protectionism, supply chain pressures, and tariffs
This leads to higher costs → margin compression
In both cases, risks to global demand and corporate earnings
This fractal aligns well with both of my long-term wave count scenarios:
Base scenario:
We’re inside a large impulse, where wave 3 is experiencing a classic extension. This implies the bull market could stretch into the 2030s, with smoother phases of growth and distribution. In this view, the current structure resembles a second wave forming as an rFL.
Alternative scenario:
The ongoing correction is wave 4 of a large cycle. After this volatile phase, a final rally — the terminal wave of this supercycle — is expected to follow.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🥷🏼 My Telegram
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.