With the S&P 500 index (the S&P 500 future contract is used as a reference in this analysis) having surpassed its all-time record of 6,165 points at the end of June, and still against a backdrop of trade diplomacy, what technical and fundamental price target can we aim for over the next 12 months? 6,500 points? 6,700 points? 7,000 points? To answer this question, we need to cross-reference the median opinions of financial analysts with the theoretical objectives of technical analysis to assess the remaining potential of the S&P 500.
In terms of fundamentals, the new deadline for trade negotiations between the United States and its trading partners is Friday August 1, and the Fed is unlikely to cut the federal funds rate on Wednesday July 30.
1) Fundamentals and technical analysis: what are the common targets for the end of 2025?
I'd like to start by looking ahead to the next few months and establishing an average target for the S&P 500 between now and the end of the year. Naturally, this is a medium-term projection (several months) and leaves room for short-term correction/retraction phases. Bear in mind that even an underlying uptrend alternates between bullish impulses and short-term correction periods.
According to FactSet, financial analysts' median price target for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months is 6,700 points. As for the theoretical price targets of technical analysis, they are based here on Elliott waves and Fibonacci extensions, giving a range of between 6450 points and 6900 points.
The chart below shows the Japanese candlesticks in weekly data for the S&P 500 future contract with theoretical technical targets based on Fibonacci extensions.
The chart below comes from FactSet and represents the median target of financial analysts for the S&P 500 index with a 12-month horizon
2) Market tops are built on euphoria, and at this stage, sentiment indicators are not in a state of extreme optimism
Is the underlying bullish move under threat from market sentiment that has become over-optimistic? The answer is negative, according to the latest sentiment survey from the American Association of Retail Investors (AAII). The seller's tank is still full, with 39% expecting a bear market. Bear in mind that final market tops are built in euphoria, when the % of sellers falls to the bottom.
The survey below is conducted once a week by the American Retail Investor Association
3) Quantitative analysis does not yet describe an extreme overbought technical situation for S&P 500 stocks
Another approach, the quantitative approach to financial markets, also shows that the market is not yet in a risk zone of hyper-exposure to buying. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average is not yet in the overbought zone.
In conclusion, although there will always be short-term technical corrections, the underlying uptrend of the S&P 500 is not threatened at this stage.
The blue curve below represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average. This is a quantitative analysis of the financial markets.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
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Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
In terms of fundamentals, the new deadline for trade negotiations between the United States and its trading partners is Friday August 1, and the Fed is unlikely to cut the federal funds rate on Wednesday July 30.
1) Fundamentals and technical analysis: what are the common targets for the end of 2025?
I'd like to start by looking ahead to the next few months and establishing an average target for the S&P 500 between now and the end of the year. Naturally, this is a medium-term projection (several months) and leaves room for short-term correction/retraction phases. Bear in mind that even an underlying uptrend alternates between bullish impulses and short-term correction periods.
According to FactSet, financial analysts' median price target for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months is 6,700 points. As for the theoretical price targets of technical analysis, they are based here on Elliott waves and Fibonacci extensions, giving a range of between 6450 points and 6900 points.
The chart below shows the Japanese candlesticks in weekly data for the S&P 500 future contract with theoretical technical targets based on Fibonacci extensions.
The chart below comes from FactSet and represents the median target of financial analysts for the S&P 500 index with a 12-month horizon
2) Market tops are built on euphoria, and at this stage, sentiment indicators are not in a state of extreme optimism
Is the underlying bullish move under threat from market sentiment that has become over-optimistic? The answer is negative, according to the latest sentiment survey from the American Association of Retail Investors (AAII). The seller's tank is still full, with 39% expecting a bear market. Bear in mind that final market tops are built in euphoria, when the % of sellers falls to the bottom.
The survey below is conducted once a week by the American Retail Investor Association
3) Quantitative analysis does not yet describe an extreme overbought technical situation for S&P 500 stocks
Another approach, the quantitative approach to financial markets, also shows that the market is not yet in a risk zone of hyper-exposure to buying. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average is not yet in the overbought zone.
In conclusion, although there will always be short-term technical corrections, the underlying uptrend of the S&P 500 is not threatened at this stage.
The blue curve below represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average. This is a quantitative analysis of the financial markets.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.