ES1! Fundamentals and Economic Calendar
Data Recap:
• Friday: 06/06/2025
o US Non-Farm Payrolls (May) 139k vs. Exp. 130k (Prev. 177k, Rev. 147k)
o US Unemployment Rate (May) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
o US Average Earnings YY (May) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.8%, Rev. 3.9%)
• Overnight Monday: 06/09/2025
o Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(May) 103.22B vs. Exp. 101.3B (Prev. 96.18B)
o Chinese Exports YY (USD)(May) 4.8% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 8.1%)
o Chinese Imports YY (USD)(May) -3.4% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. -0.2%)
o Chinese CPI MM (May) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
o Chinese PPI YY (May) -3.3% vs. Exp. -3.2% (Prev. -2.7%)
o Chinese CPI YY (May) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%)
Looking ahead this week on the calendar, notable economic data releases are as follows:
• Wednesday: 06/11/2025
o US CPI YoY (May)
o US CPI MoM (May)
o US 10 year Note Auction
• Thursday: 06/12/2025
o US PPI MoM (May)
o US PPI YoY (May)
o US 30 year Bond Auction
• Friday: 06/13/2025
o Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)P
o Michigan 1-year and 5-year Inflation Expectations (Jun)P
On the trade and tariff front, we have China-US trade talks continuing in the UK today. The Chinese Vice Premier is visiting the UK from June 8th-13th.
There has been progress made which is visible in terms of China relaxing export controls on rare earth minerals and President Trump stating that they are very far advanced on the China deal ahead of high level talks in London today.
The FED is in a blackout period until the FOMC meeting. Trade, tariffs, and geopolitical risks still need to be monitored.
Technical:
What has the market done?
With NQ leading, ES has also reclaimed yearly open. It held above yearly open in the overnight session.
What is it trying to do?
Climb higher, overlapping bars and yearly VPOC shifting higher denote acceptance at higher prices.
How good of a job is it doing?
Overlapping bars, headline risks and leveraged positions also point towards potential for prices moving lower before resuming higher or remaining range bound. TACO acronym traders may be in for max pain.
What is more likely to happen from here?
Given the data above, we would iterate given our previous explanation that recent data including CPI, PPI, Trade imports, exports is skewed due to trade tensions and this being reflected in business and consumer behavior. FED is likely to remain on hold while it waits and averages out the impact on growth, inflation and labor market.
Scenario 1: Push higher
Prices continue to push higher, if CPI comes in lower than expected, this may prompt a short-term continuation higher.
Scenario 2: Range bound
Markets remain in wait and see mode this week having climbed above yearly open. Markets build value higher and we expect VPOC to shift higher too.
Scenario 3: Sell-off
A mix of factors could e.g., trade talks stalling, weaker than expected US 10 year and 30 year auctions could foreshadow cracks appearing in the bonds market. This may fuel a wider sell-off if yields climb back higher.
Glossary:
ES - emini-S&P 500 Futures
NQ - emini-NASDAQ 100 Futures
VPOC - Volume Point of Control: The most traded price by volume in a given range. Represents acceptance or consensus
EdgeClear
P: 773.832.8320
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any example trades are not inclusive of fees and commissions.
P: 773.832.8320
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any example trades are not inclusive of fees and commissions.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
EdgeClear
P: 773.832.8320
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any example trades are not inclusive of fees and commissions.
P: 773.832.8320
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any example trades are not inclusive of fees and commissions.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.