Fundamentals (what can move ES)
• 08:30 ET – U.S. New Residential Construction (Housing Starts/Permits). First move risk right at the print; can nudge yields and risk appetite. We’ll let the initial spike settle and then act on the HTF levels below. 
⸻
Key levels from your charts
Numbers rounded to the quarter where needed.
• PDH: 6484.25
• PDL: 6456.00
• ONH: 6475.25
• ONL: 6462.00
• RTH VWAP (today): 6466.50
• PMH / Asia H cluster: 6470.5–6471.75
• 30-min supply / OB: 6479–6485 (overlaps PDH)
• Liquidity/defense zone (“strong low”/Mon swing): 6452–6456
Think of 6468–6472 as the intraday “equilibrium” band we’ve been ping-ponging around; acceptance away from this band is what should start the 15+ pt drive.
Context: We press into the 30-min supply shelf that capped NYPM today.
Trigger: Price trades 6479–6485, stalls (wicks/absorption on Bookmap, cumulative delta fails to make new highs), then reclaims below 6471–6472 (PMH area).
Entry style: Stop-market on the reclaim or limit into a micro pullback after the failed pop.
Invalidation: Above 6486.50 (clear acceptance above PDH/supply).
Targets:
6468–6470 (back to equilibrium),
6462 (ONL),
6456 (PDL / strong-low).
From ~6482 to 6467 = 15 pts; stretch to 6456 = 26 pts.
Order-flow tells: Offers replenish 6480–6485; iceberg/absorption on up-ticks; delta divergence into the level.
Timing
08:30 ET data: stand aside for the first 2–5 minutes; let the impulse show its hand, then look for our triggers.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
NY AM window: 09:45–11:30 ET.
NY PM window: 13:30–15:30 ET (if morning doesn’t give clean structure).
• 08:30 ET – U.S. New Residential Construction (Housing Starts/Permits). First move risk right at the print; can nudge yields and risk appetite. We’ll let the initial spike settle and then act on the HTF levels below. 
⸻
Key levels from your charts
Numbers rounded to the quarter where needed.
• PDH: 6484.25
• PDL: 6456.00
• ONH: 6475.25
• ONL: 6462.00
• RTH VWAP (today): 6466.50
• PMH / Asia H cluster: 6470.5–6471.75
• 30-min supply / OB: 6479–6485 (overlaps PDH)
• Liquidity/defense zone (“strong low”/Mon swing): 6452–6456
Think of 6468–6472 as the intraday “equilibrium” band we’ve been ping-ponging around; acceptance away from this band is what should start the 15+ pt drive.
Context: We press into the 30-min supply shelf that capped NYPM today.
Trigger: Price trades 6479–6485, stalls (wicks/absorption on Bookmap, cumulative delta fails to make new highs), then reclaims below 6471–6472 (PMH area).
Entry style: Stop-market on the reclaim or limit into a micro pullback after the failed pop.
Invalidation: Above 6486.50 (clear acceptance above PDH/supply).
Targets:
6468–6470 (back to equilibrium),
6462 (ONL),
6456 (PDL / strong-low).
From ~6482 to 6467 = 15 pts; stretch to 6456 = 26 pts.
Order-flow tells: Offers replenish 6480–6485; iceberg/absorption on up-ticks; delta divergence into the level.
Timing
08:30 ET data: stand aside for the first 2–5 minutes; let the impulse show its hand, then look for our triggers.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
NY AM window: 09:45–11:30 ET.
NY PM window: 13:30–15:30 ET (if morning doesn’t give clean structure).
Note
2) Flush & reclaim long from 6452–6456 (strong-low cluster)Context: We wash out the lows into PDL/“strong-low”, sweep liquidity, then reclaim value.
• Trigger: Drive into 6452–6456, then reclaim 6461–6462 (ONL) with buyers holding above VWAP on the retake.
• Entry style: Stop-market through the reclaim or limit on first HL after the sweep.
• Invalidation: 6449.50 (no acceptance below the sweep).
• Targets:
1. 6468–6470 (VWAP/equilibrium),
2. 6475 (ONH),
3. 6484 (PDH).
From ~6455 to 6470 = 15 pts; full run to PDH ≈ +29 pts.
Order-flow tells: Bids stepping in 6454–6456; quick absorption of sells; green bubbles building and tape speed picking up on the reclaim.
Note
If neither setup printsNo trade. We’re not taking mid-range chops or 3–7 pt fades. We’ll wait for either (a) a push/fail at 6479–6485 or (b) a proper sweep/reclaim at 6452–6456.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.