Will the IBEX 35 End July at New Highs? Futures Point Up Despite Tariff Threat
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The IBEX 35 could end July near record highs following a strong opening across European markets. At 08:10 CET, futures on the Spanish benchmark were up 0.54% to 14,445 points, showing more strength than their peers: Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.22%, the German DAX 0.28%, and the UK FTSE 100 0.07%.
This upward momentum comes despite a growing international risk: U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 15% tariff on all imports from Europe, including industrial, agricultural, pharmaceutical, and luxury goods. Fortunately, Europe has chosen not to escalate the conflict by imposing additional tariffs beyond those already in place. A tit-for-tat scenario could have pushed European inflation higher — something the ECB governance is keen to avoid.
Potential Impact on the IBEX 35
The tariff decision introduces uncertainty for key sectors within the IBEX 35, especially those with strong international exposure such as Inditex, Grifols, IAG, Acerinox, and Gestamp, which could face margin pressure and weaker exports. In the short term, the outcome will depend on the European Commission’s response, which is already considering coordinated countermeasures.
Still, investors appeared optimistic in early trading, focusing on a solid round of earnings from Spanish companies. Meliá, Viscofan, PharmaMar, Sanjosé, and Inmobiliaria del Sur posted strong first-half results, lending support to the index. On the downside, BBVA reported a 2% drop in quarterly net profit, and the Bank of Spain has reduced its systemic buffer requirement for the bank.
Technical Analysis
The IBEX 35 is trading near its key resistance level at 14,500 points. A monthly close above that level would confirm a breakout from annual highs, potentially opening the path to 14,800 points. However, the tariff threat could bring short-term volatility.
Since late May, the index has been moving within a price consolidation range, but in the past two sessions it has shown signs of a bullish breakout above the previous high at 14,358 points. The Point of Control (POC) currently lies at 14,000 points, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators and moving average crossovers suggest the current push is backed by the 50-period moving average and an ongoing price expansion.
• Supports: POC at 14,000; key support at 13,599 (consolidation zone)
• Resistances: At current highs
• MACD and RSI: Indicate a growing overbought trend and increasing bullish volume
Despite Trump Tariff Storm
Despite the new tariff front opened by Donald Trump, the IBEX 35 displays a resilience worth noting. Backed by solid corporate earnings and favorable technicals, bulls remain at the helm — for now. The risk of a full-scale trade war still looms, but Europe’s decision not to retaliate has eased inflation concerns.
And like that brave brigantine that sailed stormy seas, the IBEX remains steady and defiant, unshaken by winds or tempest. “Asia to one side, Europe to the other...” Today, the Spanish index sails toward new highs, hoping to close July with all sails unfurled.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The IBEX 35 could end July near record highs following a strong opening across European markets. At 08:10 CET, futures on the Spanish benchmark were up 0.54% to 14,445 points, showing more strength than their peers: Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.22%, the German DAX 0.28%, and the UK FTSE 100 0.07%.
This upward momentum comes despite a growing international risk: U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 15% tariff on all imports from Europe, including industrial, agricultural, pharmaceutical, and luxury goods. Fortunately, Europe has chosen not to escalate the conflict by imposing additional tariffs beyond those already in place. A tit-for-tat scenario could have pushed European inflation higher — something the ECB governance is keen to avoid.
Potential Impact on the IBEX 35
The tariff decision introduces uncertainty for key sectors within the IBEX 35, especially those with strong international exposure such as Inditex, Grifols, IAG, Acerinox, and Gestamp, which could face margin pressure and weaker exports. In the short term, the outcome will depend on the European Commission’s response, which is already considering coordinated countermeasures.
Still, investors appeared optimistic in early trading, focusing on a solid round of earnings from Spanish companies. Meliá, Viscofan, PharmaMar, Sanjosé, and Inmobiliaria del Sur posted strong first-half results, lending support to the index. On the downside, BBVA reported a 2% drop in quarterly net profit, and the Bank of Spain has reduced its systemic buffer requirement for the bank.
Technical Analysis
The IBEX 35 is trading near its key resistance level at 14,500 points. A monthly close above that level would confirm a breakout from annual highs, potentially opening the path to 14,800 points. However, the tariff threat could bring short-term volatility.
Since late May, the index has been moving within a price consolidation range, but in the past two sessions it has shown signs of a bullish breakout above the previous high at 14,358 points. The Point of Control (POC) currently lies at 14,000 points, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators and moving average crossovers suggest the current push is backed by the 50-period moving average and an ongoing price expansion.
• Supports: POC at 14,000; key support at 13,599 (consolidation zone)
• Resistances: At current highs
• MACD and RSI: Indicate a growing overbought trend and increasing bullish volume
Despite Trump Tariff Storm
Despite the new tariff front opened by Donald Trump, the IBEX 35 displays a resilience worth noting. Backed by solid corporate earnings and favorable technicals, bulls remain at the helm — for now. The risk of a full-scale trade war still looms, but Europe’s decision not to retaliate has eased inflation concerns.
And like that brave brigantine that sailed stormy seas, the IBEX remains steady and defiant, unshaken by winds or tempest. “Asia to one side, Europe to the other...” Today, the Spanish index sails toward new highs, hoping to close July with all sails unfurled.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.