Will 2025 Bring an Altcoin Season or Continued Divergence?

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🔷 BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance)
Trend momentum has been strongly bullish since late 2022 and shows no signs of slowing on higher time frames (6M, 12M). When BTC.D trends higher, the market tends to concentrate capital in BTC, making it difficult for many altcoins to rally. Any short-term dips in BTC.D on daily or weekly charts could temporarily release some capital into altcoins, but overall, the dominant uptrend remains intact.

🔸 ETHBTC
The ratio has been signaling a SELL bias since late 2023, continuing throughout 2024. It reflects ETH’s weakness relative to BTC. On the 3M chart, ETHBTC is in a downtrend; any upward corrections are likely just retracements before further declines. There’s no clear sign that ETHBTC has bottomed across the monthly, 3-month, 6-month, or yearly cycles.

✔️ Conclusion
BTC.D may see short-term corrections in 2025 but is expected to continue rising overall. ETHBTC, on the other hand, will likely continue its downward trajectory, with occasional small rebounds along the way. This suggests no broad Altcoin Season in 2025; instead, expect ongoing fragmentation within the altcoin market. Capital will rotate selectively based on each sector or individual coin’s structure.

💡 Strategy
Use caution when rotating funds from altcoins to BTC to optimize returns. Carefully select altcoins that show genuine growth potential in 2025, and avoid emotional allocation. Emphasize short-term strategies—buy for the short term, take profits quickly—to navigate a market where altcoins remain highly divergent.

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