The bitcoin price set a new all-time high earlier this week at 123,000 US dollars, confirming that the bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving is far from over. This current bullish cycle is set to end in autumn 2025, if the market continues to repeat past cycles - bitcoin's famous 4-year cycle. You can reread our bitcoin analysis on this subject by clicking on the link below.
1) The ETH/BTC ratio has validated a major bullish reversal, signalling Ether's outperformance of BTC until the end of the current cycle
Cycles of relative strength between the bitcoin price and the ether price are multi-year cycles, lasting 5 to 6 years. Technical analysis highlights the presence of a historically extreme graphical support, which in recent weeks has enabled the ETH/BTC rate to reverse its upward trend. In conclusion, it is now the Ether token that will outperform the bitcoin rate, and this should continue until the end of the current cycle, i.e. next October/November.
The chart below shows Japanese candlesticks in weekly data for the ETH/BTC rate
2) BTC dominance is validating a bearish divergence
This is a signal long-awaited by the crypto investment community, namely the day when bitcoin's dominance will recede to make way for better relative behavior by altcoins. It's a phenomenon known as “altcoin season”, and it will come about if, and only if, BTC's dominance gives a downward reversal signal. This is why we need to keep a close eye on this potential bearish divergence on BTC dominance.
The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for Bitcoin dominance
3) What is the target price for ETH/USD, based on the findings of technical analysis of the financial markets?
The ETH/USD rate has proposed a firm rebound on its 200-week moving averages, which are reinforcing the lower part of a chartist support pattern at 1500/2000 US dollars. As a result, the ETH/USD rate should be able to trend towards the upper part of the technical configuration, supported by inflows into US spot ETH ETFs. This corresponds to resistance at US$4,000.
The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for ETH/USD, with a bullish trend above the 200-week simple and exponential moving averages
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All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
1) The ETH/BTC ratio has validated a major bullish reversal, signalling Ether's outperformance of BTC until the end of the current cycle
Cycles of relative strength between the bitcoin price and the ether price are multi-year cycles, lasting 5 to 6 years. Technical analysis highlights the presence of a historically extreme graphical support, which in recent weeks has enabled the ETH/BTC rate to reverse its upward trend. In conclusion, it is now the Ether token that will outperform the bitcoin rate, and this should continue until the end of the current cycle, i.e. next October/November.
The chart below shows Japanese candlesticks in weekly data for the ETH/BTC rate
2) BTC dominance is validating a bearish divergence
This is a signal long-awaited by the crypto investment community, namely the day when bitcoin's dominance will recede to make way for better relative behavior by altcoins. It's a phenomenon known as “altcoin season”, and it will come about if, and only if, BTC's dominance gives a downward reversal signal. This is why we need to keep a close eye on this potential bearish divergence on BTC dominance.
The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for Bitcoin dominance
3) What is the target price for ETH/USD, based on the findings of technical analysis of the financial markets?
The ETH/USD rate has proposed a firm rebound on its 200-week moving averages, which are reinforcing the lower part of a chartist support pattern at 1500/2000 US dollars. As a result, the ETH/USD rate should be able to trend towards the upper part of the technical configuration, supported by inflows into US spot ETH ETFs. This corresponds to resistance at US$4,000.
The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for ETH/USD, with a bullish trend above the 200-week simple and exponential moving averages
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.