I suspect it is a setup like back in Nov 2017 here, which is interesting as I was not anticipating this could happen based on overall data and sentiment, but it is what it is.
The interesting part is this signal would more or less be in tandem with equities rallying until end of 2021 or mid 2022, perhaps with crypto topping sooner than that? I am a bit surprised by developments we had since the top, but it is certainly possible and logical according to the monthly
ETHUSD chart.
Big allocation to crypto is highly risky now though, I was invested in a big way from the bottom and onwards, on and off since 2019, dodged the COVID crash, dodged the top after Bakkt, more or less did alright, being as risk averse as I am, but being an 'ape' paid off more. Problem is people get rewarded for the wrong reasons and won't know when to get out when the market crashes (again).
The last crash was a big margin wipeout, I suppose we will get another buildup of margin longs once this signal is close to its end, somewhere between 6490 and 14k by late 2021...If the signal works. Daily trends have been quite good to track the moves here, with tighter risk and entries, but the big picture view is better observed from afar, in the monthly chart.
I don't have a clear signal in
BTCUSD now, hence my lack of publications in it, all I know is the monthly charts from CME suggest the rally is over for now. Judging by this chart, we might trigger a bullish signal in the monthly Bitcoin chart over time as well, perhaps going higher, or perhaps only Ethereum rallies here. Either way, the parallels to Nov 2017 is quite interesting and worth observing.
ETHBTC has managed to turn around in the weekly and now looks bullish again: 
Best of luck, don't gamble too hard on crypto, we are on shaky ground.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
The interesting part is this signal would more or less be in tandem with equities rallying until end of 2021 or mid 2022, perhaps with crypto topping sooner than that? I am a bit surprised by developments we had since the top, but it is certainly possible and logical according to the monthly
ETHUSD chart. Big allocation to crypto is highly risky now though, I was invested in a big way from the bottom and onwards, on and off since 2019, dodged the COVID crash, dodged the top after Bakkt, more or less did alright, being as risk averse as I am, but being an 'ape' paid off more. Problem is people get rewarded for the wrong reasons and won't know when to get out when the market crashes (again).
The last crash was a big margin wipeout, I suppose we will get another buildup of margin longs once this signal is close to its end, somewhere between 6490 and 14k by late 2021...If the signal works. Daily trends have been quite good to track the moves here, with tighter risk and entries, but the big picture view is better observed from afar, in the monthly chart.
I don't have a clear signal in
BTCUSD now, hence my lack of publications in it, all I know is the monthly charts from CME suggest the rally is over for now. Judging by this chart, we might trigger a bullish signal in the monthly Bitcoin chart over time as well, perhaps going higher, or perhaps only Ethereum rallies here. Either way, the parallels to Nov 2017 is quite interesting and worth observing.ETHBTC has managed to turn around in the weekly and now looks bullish again: Best of luck, don't gamble too hard on crypto, we are on shaky ground.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
One possible way #BTCUSD long term turns bullish again, as #ETHUSD is, would be if we move over 60.5k this month...this would kick off a monthly trend for 6 months as well, and top around 87k, below everyone's 100k target, by Jan 2022.I like the idea overall, a good way to resolve the current chart setups in crypto markets and also not please everyone's laser eyes meme target, whilst letting the 2 month timeframe trend timing more or less work, perhaps after this we get a monthly bearish trend forming from January 2022 onwards, and we get the gold after 2011 top set up going after (multi year bear market with everyone turned a bag holder and a bitcoin bug since then)
Note
(earliest way to join this would be a daily chart signal turning bullish, which can happen soon and have a tight stop, I'll be waiting for that to go long alongside my clients)Note
(I'm already long ETHUSD from lower since yesterday)Trade closed manually
I managed to squeeze a nice return and exit all crypto positions today before things got really ugly. I'm not sure what the hell will happen here next, so rather side step it and watch from the sidelines until it is clear again in the short term.Trade active
Bot back
Note
The current action makes me think it will take 2 more weeks for crypto to regain its footing after the last big margin liquidation drop. Until then, it is unclear in the short term, and each day will give more clarity regarding the short term outlook.Monthly uptrend in
ETHUSD and ETHBTC still valid.Note
The circled area is an interesting long term support level to look for longs if the current down trend pans out. A sharp move down from this sideways range after futures open would signal a drop can occur again. Else, we might chop around for a few weeks and then move higher.
Note
Here's
BTCUSD, for now it is potentially bullish here...Longer term chart is not affected by the decline.Note
ETHBTC also at a high RR level to buy in the weekly chart. I'm looking to enter longs.Trade active
Trade closed manually
I'm a bit concerned about broad markets...I'm out for now. Sold crypto positions at almost break even.Note
Trade active
Seems like we are good to go...Below 2530 this is toast, else, hold.Note
So far, so good...I am confident we saw the bottom.
Note
Note
The ratio favors my rotation into
BTCUSD exposure only, this is now a weekly down trend, monthly can turn down too in 2 months. Daily is fully in control of bears vs $BTC.Order cancelled
Trade active
Good time to revisit some ETHUSD longs: Note
Note
Weekly signal confirmed, daily target hit
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.