thereum has likely completed a 5-wave impulsive rally from 1380 → 4780, with the channel break confirming a larger correction in progress.
Currently, price is unfolding Wave A of an ABC NeoWave structure, subdividing into 5 smaller waves.
⸻
🔹 Wave Count Breakdown
• Wave 1: Sharp drop to ~4335
• Wave 2: 61.8% rebound to 4463
• Wave 3: Extended selloff (161.8% of W1) → 4335
• Wave 4: Shallow retrace (~38.2% W3) → 4463
• Wave 5 (in progress): Targeting 4300–4270 (1.618 Fib + channel floor)
👉 Monowave count (~45–55) sits perfectly inside NeoWave’s 34–89 range → confirming impulsive character of this Wave A.
⸻
🔹 Next Path Scenarios
1. Wave A completion → Short-term bottom around 4300 (confluence of Fib + channel).
2. Wave B rebound → Relief rally toward 4460–4600 (38.2–50% retrace of A). Likely a sharp ABC bounce that traps late shorts.
3. Wave C decline → Resumption of downtrend toward 3800–4000, with risk of an extended drop to 3500 if momentum accelerates.
⸻
🔹 Technical Clues
• Fib structure: Textbook alternation (W2 deep / W4 shallow).
• RSI divergence at lows → exhaustion signals.
• Dominance context: USDT.D rebounding + BTC.D >60% → capital rotation suggests ETH downside risk remains elevated.
⸻
🔹 Trade Setup (Bias: Short with rebound play)
• Entry (short): Below 4400 on BOS confirmation (break of 4335).
• Targets: TP1 = 4300 (end of A), TP2 = 3800 (post-B wave).
• Rebound long: Consider 4300 → 4600 scalp if Wave A completes.
• Stops: Above 4463 (W4 high) for shorts / below 4300 for longs.
• Risk mgmt: 1–2% position size; trail stops along channel midline.
⸻
⚠️ Volatility remains extreme. Manage risk strictly—crypto psychology flips fast.
Currently, price is unfolding Wave A of an ABC NeoWave structure, subdividing into 5 smaller waves.
⸻
🔹 Wave Count Breakdown
• Wave 1: Sharp drop to ~4335
• Wave 2: 61.8% rebound to 4463
• Wave 3: Extended selloff (161.8% of W1) → 4335
• Wave 4: Shallow retrace (~38.2% W3) → 4463
• Wave 5 (in progress): Targeting 4300–4270 (1.618 Fib + channel floor)
👉 Monowave count (~45–55) sits perfectly inside NeoWave’s 34–89 range → confirming impulsive character of this Wave A.
⸻
🔹 Next Path Scenarios
1. Wave A completion → Short-term bottom around 4300 (confluence of Fib + channel).
2. Wave B rebound → Relief rally toward 4460–4600 (38.2–50% retrace of A). Likely a sharp ABC bounce that traps late shorts.
3. Wave C decline → Resumption of downtrend toward 3800–4000, with risk of an extended drop to 3500 if momentum accelerates.
⸻
🔹 Technical Clues
• Fib structure: Textbook alternation (W2 deep / W4 shallow).
• RSI divergence at lows → exhaustion signals.
• Dominance context: USDT.D rebounding + BTC.D >60% → capital rotation suggests ETH downside risk remains elevated.
⸻
🔹 Trade Setup (Bias: Short with rebound play)
• Entry (short): Below 4400 on BOS confirmation (break of 4335).
• Targets: TP1 = 4300 (end of A), TP2 = 3800 (post-B wave).
• Rebound long: Consider 4300 → 4600 scalp if Wave A completes.
• Stops: Above 4463 (W4 high) for shorts / below 4300 for longs.
• Risk mgmt: 1–2% position size; trail stops along channel midline.
⸻
⚠️ Volatility remains extreme. Manage risk strictly—crypto psychology flips fast.
📊 CryptoPilot – Advanced Technical Analysis for BTC & Altcoins
🔎 Smart Money • Price Action • NeoWave • Multi-Timeframe Context
📩 Contact: @CryptoPilot_1 (Telegram)
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🔎 Smart Money • Price Action • NeoWave • Multi-Timeframe Context
📩 Contact: @CryptoPilot_1 (Telegram)
📥 Telegram Chanell : @CryptoPilot_Trading
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📊 CryptoPilot – Advanced Technical Analysis for BTC & Altcoins
🔎 Smart Money • Price Action • NeoWave • Multi-Timeframe Context
📩 Contact: @CryptoPilot_1 (Telegram)
📥 Telegram Chanell : @CryptoPilot_Trading
🔎 Smart Money • Price Action • NeoWave • Multi-Timeframe Context
📩 Contact: @CryptoPilot_1 (Telegram)
📥 Telegram Chanell : @CryptoPilot_Trading
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.