Euro / Australian Dollar
Long
Updated

#003 Investment Opportunity LONG EUR/AUD

116


The EUR/AUD pair is showing an interesting technical-macro context that suggests a possible bullish development in the next sessions. The analysis conducted integrates multi-timeframe elements, advanced indicators, institutional positioning and macroeconomic context, concluding in a coherent view in favor of a long position.

🔍 Multi-timeframe technical analysis (8H, D, W)
On 8H and daily timeframes, EUR/AUD has broken the descending bearish trendline and is building a new structure of higher lows above the long-term moving average. The weekly chart shows a consolidation above the static support of 1.7400, with candles that are starting to configure potential reversals.

📊 Main technical indicators
WaveTrend and RSI are bullish but not overbought, offering room for further extensions.

The Stochastic has just crossed upwards in the restart zone, confirming the market's intention to reverse the previous bearish push.

🌀 Harmonic patterns and cyclical
We are in the initial phase of a new bullish cycle. The completion of a possible "inverse Gartley" pattern coincides with the currently tested technical support levels. The short-term cyclical shows a clear end of the previous bearish cycle.

🧱 Key supports and resistances
The price has bounced strongly from the dynamic support represented by the 200-hour moving average and the static support in the 1.7420 area. The immediate target is the structural resistance at 1.7950, already tested in the past as a reaction point.

📈 Volumes and volume profile
The volume profile highlights a strong accumulation in the area between 1.7450 and 1.7550. No excess visible in the distribution, which suggests a still “light” movement with potential for expansion.

🕯 Candlestick patterns and price action
The last 8H candle is a bullish engulfing, closed above the moving average and with increasing volumes. The three previous candles show a compression and accumulation pattern.

🔗 Correlations and geometries
The divergence with AUD/USD (which appears weak) and the inverse correlation with EUR/JPY in strengthening give further strength to the bullish picture. Historical fractals also show symmetries that have occurred in similar macro contexts.

📊 Pattern Statistics
Similar patterns on EUR/AUD – post trendline breakout with bullish structure on 8H – have shown a positive outcome in 81% of cases on historical samples greater than 100.

📉 Retail Positioning
Current sentiment shows retail heavily positioned short, creating a potential contrarian effect in favor of buyers.

🏦 Institutional Positioning (COT)
COT data signals an increase in net long positions on the euro and a reduction on AUD, compatible with a directional reversal.

🧮 Fundamental Macroeconomic Analysis
EUR supported by expectations of monetary stabilization by the ECB, without new imminent tightening.

AUD penalized by weak exports and softer tones from the RBA.

Macro differential slightly in favor of EUR.

📊 Intermarket Relative Strength
EUR shows increasing strength against commodity currencies, including AUD. This reinforces the bullish thesis, also confirmed by the capital inflows on the euro.

📰 Real Sentiment and Newsflow
The latest macro news and institutional reports confirm a cautious positioning on the AUD. No imminent driver justifies a structural strengthening of the Australian currency.

🌪 Implied and Historical Volatility
Volatility is growing, but still within optimal historical ranges for sustained directional movements. The current ATR is above the average of the last 10 years, a favorable condition for breakouts.

📆 Macro Event Risk
No disruptive event expected in the next 48 hours. The economic calendar is neutral and does not threaten the technical structure in formation.

📉 Minimum Volatility Threshold
The current range and ATR exceed the minimum values ​​of statistical validity, ensuring that the movement is not a false compression breakout.
Trade active
Trade closed: target reached

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