EUR/AUD is in a critical situation after a strong bearish trend that pushed the price into a key support area. Analyzing the daily chart, we can observe that the price is testing a strong demand zone, highlighted in blue, from which a potential rebound towards the upper supply zone (in red) could emerge.
The retail sentiment confirms strong short pressure, with 82% of traders positioned on the downside. This excess pessimism suggests, from a contrarian perspective, a possible rebound. Additionally, the oscillator indicates an oversold condition, reinforcing the hypothesis of a correction.
From an institutional point of view, the COT data shows a slight reduction in long positions for both EUR and AUD, but with one detail: speculators remain predominantly long on EUR and short on AUD. Meanwhile, hedgers continue to protect themselves against a possible decline in the euro, demonstrating caution.
In terms of seasonality, May has historically been a weak month for both currencies, but in the last two years, EUR has shown a slight recovery, while AUD has demonstrated signs of stability.
Trading Strategy:
Monitor the reaction to the support zone carefully. A bullish signal in this area could pave the way for a rebound towards the upper resistance. However, a bearish breakout would confirm the ongoing downward trend.
The retail sentiment confirms strong short pressure, with 82% of traders positioned on the downside. This excess pessimism suggests, from a contrarian perspective, a possible rebound. Additionally, the oscillator indicates an oversold condition, reinforcing the hypothesis of a correction.
From an institutional point of view, the COT data shows a slight reduction in long positions for both EUR and AUD, but with one detail: speculators remain predominantly long on EUR and short on AUD. Meanwhile, hedgers continue to protect themselves against a possible decline in the euro, demonstrating caution.
In terms of seasonality, May has historically been a weak month for both currencies, but in the last two years, EUR has shown a slight recovery, while AUD has demonstrated signs of stability.
Trading Strategy:
Monitor the reaction to the support zone carefully. A bullish signal in this area could pave the way for a rebound towards the upper resistance. However, a bearish breakout would confirm the ongoing downward trend.
Trade active
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.