🧠 MACRO & INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS (COT)
EURO (EUR)
Strong increase in net long positions by non-commercials: +16,146
Commercials also added long exposure: +25,799
Bias: moderately bullish
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (AUD)
Non-commercials remain heavily net short (long/short ratio: 15% vs 63.6%)
Slight increase in commercial longs: +2,629
Bias: still bearish, but showing early signs of positioning exhaustion
COT Conclusion: EUR remains strong, AUD remains weak — but the recent extension calls for caution on fresh EURAUD longs.
📊 SEASONALITY (JULY)
EUR shows historically positive July performance across 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y averages
AUD also shows mild strength, but less consistent
🔎 Net differential: No strong seasonal edge on EURAUD in July
📈 RETAIL SENTIMENT
54% of retail traders are short EURAUD, 46% long
Slight contrarian bullish bias, but not extreme yet → neutral to slightly long
📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – MULTI-TIMEFRAME
1. Weekly Chart
Strong bearish engulfing candle after 4 weeks of upside
RSI dropped below 50 → clear momentum shift
1.7960–1.8100 is now a liquidity zone that’s been tapped
2. Daily Chart
Confirmed break of the ascending channel formed since May
Price reacted from demand zone around 1.7460–1.7720, signaling potential pullback
Watch for rejection around 1.7910 (50% body of the weekly engulfing candle)
3. Entry Setup
Key area for short entries: 1.7910–1.7940
This zone aligns with:
✅ Former support now turned resistance
✅ Inside a valid bearish order block
✅ Ideal retracement level (50% engulfing body)
🎯 OPERATIONAL CONCLUSION
While the macro context still favors a stronger EUR against AUD, price action tells another story.
The weekly engulfing candle is a strong technical reversal signal, and the daily structure confirms the break.
→ Shorting the pullback into 1.7910–1.7940 could offer an excellent R/R trade setup.
Bias: Short-term bearish – Targeting 1.7700, 1.7550, and potentially 1.7315
Invalidation: Daily close above 1.8040
EURO (EUR)
Strong increase in net long positions by non-commercials: +16,146
Commercials also added long exposure: +25,799
Bias: moderately bullish
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (AUD)
Non-commercials remain heavily net short (long/short ratio: 15% vs 63.6%)
Slight increase in commercial longs: +2,629
Bias: still bearish, but showing early signs of positioning exhaustion
COT Conclusion: EUR remains strong, AUD remains weak — but the recent extension calls for caution on fresh EURAUD longs.
📊 SEASONALITY (JULY)
EUR shows historically positive July performance across 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y averages
AUD also shows mild strength, but less consistent
🔎 Net differential: No strong seasonal edge on EURAUD in July
📈 RETAIL SENTIMENT
54% of retail traders are short EURAUD, 46% long
Slight contrarian bullish bias, but not extreme yet → neutral to slightly long
📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – MULTI-TIMEFRAME
1. Weekly Chart
Strong bearish engulfing candle after 4 weeks of upside
RSI dropped below 50 → clear momentum shift
1.7960–1.8100 is now a liquidity zone that’s been tapped
2. Daily Chart
Confirmed break of the ascending channel formed since May
Price reacted from demand zone around 1.7460–1.7720, signaling potential pullback
Watch for rejection around 1.7910 (50% body of the weekly engulfing candle)
3. Entry Setup
Key area for short entries: 1.7910–1.7940
This zone aligns with:
✅ Former support now turned resistance
✅ Inside a valid bearish order block
✅ Ideal retracement level (50% engulfing body)
🎯 OPERATIONAL CONCLUSION
While the macro context still favors a stronger EUR against AUD, price action tells another story.
The weekly engulfing candle is a strong technical reversal signal, and the daily structure confirms the break.
→ Shorting the pullback into 1.7910–1.7940 could offer an excellent R/R trade setup.
Bias: Short-term bearish – Targeting 1.7700, 1.7550, and potentially 1.7315
Invalidation: Daily close above 1.8040
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.