🔍 1. COT REPORT (Commitment of Traders)
EUR:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): +75,253 → Bullish, but slightly reduced this week (-3,587 longs, +6,814 shorts).
Commercials: Heavily short (550,286 vs 423,456 longs) → Hedging against potential EUR strength.
Open interest change: +8,343 contracts → Higher market participation, active environment.
AUD:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): -59,077 → Strong bearish sentiment on AUD.
Commercials: Net long (121,279 vs 61,743 shorts) → Fundamental support for AUD at potential value areas.
Open interest down (-2,607) → Possible position unwinding or rollover.
📊 COT Conclusion: Speculators favor EUR long / AUD short, but commercials are positioned inversely, suggesting a potential reversal point.
📈 2. SEASONALITY
EUR in May:
Generally negative, with average monthly performance over 10y, 15y, and 20y ranging between -0.01% and -0.02%.
Only the 2y curve shows strength (≈+0.0194).
AUD in May:
Mixed performance: 10y and 5y negative, but 2y slightly positive (+0.0083) → sign of recent improvement.
📊 Seasonality Conclusion: Slight edge for AUD thanks to near-term seasonal resilience.
💡 3. SENTIMENT
Retail traders: 84% short on EURAUD.
Average short entry: 1.7002, current price ≈ 1.7491 → many are in drawdown.
High short congestion above 1.74 → Potential short squeeze setup.
📊 Sentiment Conclusion: Environment favors a bullish push to trigger stops and unwind retail shorts.
🧠 4. PRICE ACTION
Price reacted to a major demand zone at 1.7200–1.7350.
Last two weekly candles show compression and accumulation following strong bearish momentum.
Clear liquidity pocket above 1.76–1.77, targeting the 1.79–1.80 zone.
RSI showing recovery from oversold conditions.
📊 Technical Conclusion: Structure suggests rebound or reversal, aligned with sentiment and positioning dynamics.
🔚 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Primary Bias: LONG EURAUD (multi-day / swing setup)
🎯 Target: 1.7700 – 1.7920
🛡️ Stop: Below 1.7310 (weekly close under demand zone)
⚠️ Alternative (Scenario B): A clear weekly close below 1.7300 may reactivate the bearish trend toward 1.7200.
EUR:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): +75,253 → Bullish, but slightly reduced this week (-3,587 longs, +6,814 shorts).
Commercials: Heavily short (550,286 vs 423,456 longs) → Hedging against potential EUR strength.
Open interest change: +8,343 contracts → Higher market participation, active environment.
AUD:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): -59,077 → Strong bearish sentiment on AUD.
Commercials: Net long (121,279 vs 61,743 shorts) → Fundamental support for AUD at potential value areas.
Open interest down (-2,607) → Possible position unwinding or rollover.
📊 COT Conclusion: Speculators favor EUR long / AUD short, but commercials are positioned inversely, suggesting a potential reversal point.
📈 2. SEASONALITY
EUR in May:
Generally negative, with average monthly performance over 10y, 15y, and 20y ranging between -0.01% and -0.02%.
Only the 2y curve shows strength (≈+0.0194).
AUD in May:
Mixed performance: 10y and 5y negative, but 2y slightly positive (+0.0083) → sign of recent improvement.
📊 Seasonality Conclusion: Slight edge for AUD thanks to near-term seasonal resilience.
💡 3. SENTIMENT
Retail traders: 84% short on EURAUD.
Average short entry: 1.7002, current price ≈ 1.7491 → many are in drawdown.
High short congestion above 1.74 → Potential short squeeze setup.
📊 Sentiment Conclusion: Environment favors a bullish push to trigger stops and unwind retail shorts.
🧠 4. PRICE ACTION
Price reacted to a major demand zone at 1.7200–1.7350.
Last two weekly candles show compression and accumulation following strong bearish momentum.
Clear liquidity pocket above 1.76–1.77, targeting the 1.79–1.80 zone.
RSI showing recovery from oversold conditions.
📊 Technical Conclusion: Structure suggests rebound or reversal, aligned with sentiment and positioning dynamics.
🔚 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Primary Bias: LONG EURAUD (multi-day / swing setup)
🎯 Target: 1.7700 – 1.7920
🛡️ Stop: Below 1.7310 (weekly close under demand zone)
⚠️ Alternative (Scenario B): A clear weekly close below 1.7300 may reactivate the bearish trend toward 1.7200.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.