FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH
1. Virus Situation
The outlook for EUR remains tied to the EU's ability to overcome its coronavirus pandemic. At present, the outlook appears bleak when we only consider the virus cases, with many European countries entering third waves and reinstating or prolonging economically damaging lockdown restrictions. However, the vaccinations roll out has seen some improvement recently and with the number of doses expected to ramp up substantially in May the outlook from a virus point of view is starting to look better.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB
Even though the FED and BOE are nowhere close to hawkish, they are far less dovish than the ECB, who has decided to front-load asset purchases to keep EU bond yields from rising too fast. The string of contradicting comments also shows a possible growing rift among the GC which could prove problematic when it comes to potentially altering policy in the months ahead. The bank remains one of the most bearish members, but the continued battle between the hawks and doves has seen some participants starting to abandon their dovish stance on the bank and is starting to consider whether tapering might be closer than previously thought.
3. The country’s economic developments
The vaccination roll out and additional lockdowns has weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials for the EU versus the US and UK widening. Fiscal support is another factor where the EU Recovery Fund is yet to be ratified while the US and UK have both rolled out additional stimulus and plans more in the months ahead (US). Having said that, the recent economic data such as PMI’s suggest the hit to the economy from the most recent lockdowns has not been as bad as previously feared and we have heard plenty of participants have started to position themselves for a recovery in the Eurozone. As a result, we have adjusted our bias for the EUR from Bearish to Weak Bearish.
1. Virus Situation
The outlook for EUR remains tied to the EU's ability to overcome its coronavirus pandemic. At present, the outlook appears bleak when we only consider the virus cases, with many European countries entering third waves and reinstating or prolonging economically damaging lockdown restrictions. However, the vaccinations roll out has seen some improvement recently and with the number of doses expected to ramp up substantially in May the outlook from a virus point of view is starting to look better.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB
Even though the FED and BOE are nowhere close to hawkish, they are far less dovish than the ECB, who has decided to front-load asset purchases to keep EU bond yields from rising too fast. The string of contradicting comments also shows a possible growing rift among the GC which could prove problematic when it comes to potentially altering policy in the months ahead. The bank remains one of the most bearish members, but the continued battle between the hawks and doves has seen some participants starting to abandon their dovish stance on the bank and is starting to consider whether tapering might be closer than previously thought.
3. The country’s economic developments
The vaccination roll out and additional lockdowns has weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials for the EU versus the US and UK widening. Fiscal support is another factor where the EU Recovery Fund is yet to be ratified while the US and UK have both rolled out additional stimulus and plans more in the months ahead (US). Having said that, the recent economic data such as PMI’s suggest the hit to the economy from the most recent lockdowns has not been as bad as previously feared and we have heard plenty of participants have started to position themselves for a recovery in the Eurozone. As a result, we have adjusted our bias for the EUR from Bearish to Weak Bearish.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.