EUR/CHF Full Analysis
1. Seasonality
EUR: Historically weak in August–September. The 20y and 15y datasets confirm a negative seasonal bias in September.
CHF: Stronger tendency in August–September, historically supported as a safe-haven currency, with September statistically positive.
👉 Seasonal bias: short EUR/CHF (weak EUR vs strong CHF).
2. Retail Sentiment
55% of retail traders are long EUR/CHF, while 45% are short.
👉 Slight long retail positioning = contrarian bearish signal.
3. COT Report (19 August 2025)
Euro: Non-commercial net long at 252k vs 133k short (+6.4k new longs, +3.1k new shorts). Still bullish momentum, but slowing down as commercials are selling.
CHF: Non-commercial net short (6k longs vs 33k shorts). Strong bearish imbalance, but commercials are long CHF (hedging), reinforcing CHF’s safe-haven status in case of risk-off correction.
👉 COT shows overweight Euro longs and heavy CHF shorts, raising risk of a future reversal in favor of CHF.
4. Technicals
Structure: Clear rejection from weekly supply zone 0.9435–0.9450 with a bearish engulfing.
Daily RSI cooling after strong impulse → room for further downside.
Possible pullback toward 0.9415–0.9425 (Fib 0.62–0.705) before continuation lower.
Technical targets: 0.9330–0.9315 (daily demand zone), extended to 0.9260.
Invalidation: Weekly close above 0.9450.
📌 Conclusion:
Seasonality, retail sentiment, and price action align for a bearish EUR/CHF bias. The COT highlights an overcrowded long Euro vs short CHF positioning, opening space for a structural rebound of the Swiss Franc. Technicals confirm: wait for a pullback to 0.9420 to short, targeting 0.9330/0.9260.
1. Seasonality
EUR: Historically weak in August–September. The 20y and 15y datasets confirm a negative seasonal bias in September.
CHF: Stronger tendency in August–September, historically supported as a safe-haven currency, with September statistically positive.
👉 Seasonal bias: short EUR/CHF (weak EUR vs strong CHF).
2. Retail Sentiment
55% of retail traders are long EUR/CHF, while 45% are short.
👉 Slight long retail positioning = contrarian bearish signal.
3. COT Report (19 August 2025)
Euro: Non-commercial net long at 252k vs 133k short (+6.4k new longs, +3.1k new shorts). Still bullish momentum, but slowing down as commercials are selling.
CHF: Non-commercial net short (6k longs vs 33k shorts). Strong bearish imbalance, but commercials are long CHF (hedging), reinforcing CHF’s safe-haven status in case of risk-off correction.
👉 COT shows overweight Euro longs and heavy CHF shorts, raising risk of a future reversal in favor of CHF.
4. Technicals
Structure: Clear rejection from weekly supply zone 0.9435–0.9450 with a bearish engulfing.
Daily RSI cooling after strong impulse → room for further downside.
Possible pullback toward 0.9415–0.9425 (Fib 0.62–0.705) before continuation lower.
Technical targets: 0.9330–0.9315 (daily demand zone), extended to 0.9260.
Invalidation: Weekly close above 0.9450.
📌 Conclusion:
Seasonality, retail sentiment, and price action align for a bearish EUR/CHF bias. The COT highlights an overcrowded long Euro vs short CHF positioning, opening space for a structural rebound of the Swiss Franc. Technicals confirm: wait for a pullback to 0.9420 to short, targeting 0.9330/0.9260.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.