The EUR/GBP cross is currently trading in a key technical area, hovering around 0.8427, showing signs of mild recovery after a bullish reaction from a previously tested demand zone.
📊 Technical Analysis
Price action reveals a compression phase within a descending channel (corrective flag), followed by a breakout to the upside last week. Price reached the supply zone between 0.8480 and 0.8535, which triggered a strong bearish candle rejection.
Currently, the pair is testing support around 0.8400–0.8380, a level previously defended by buyers.
The RSI bounced from oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a consolidation phase or sideways movement, rather than a clear divergence.
📌 Key Levels
Dynamic Resistance: 0.8480 – 0.8535
Structural Support: 0.8380 – 0.8285
Upside breakout target (if momentum builds): 0.8660
📅 Seasonality
Historically, June tends to be slightly bullish for EUR/GBP, especially on the 5-year and 10-year seasonal patterns. Curves indicate upward pressure between the second and third weeks of the month, suggesting that any retracement could present a seasonal long opportunity.
💼 COT Report
Euro FX
Non-Commercials reduced both longs (-1.7K) and shorts (-6.7K) → signaling indecision or rebalancing.
Net positioning remains positive, but momentum is fading.
British Pound
Non-Commercials added significantly to longs (+14.2K) and slightly to shorts (+2.8K) → GBP is attracting bullish interest.
This could reduce upside pressure on EUR/GBP in the short term.
Overall, COT data currently favors the British Pound in the near term.
📈 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are heavily skewed to the long side (74% long), which may create contrarian downside pressure if the market moves against the crowd. The average entry price is around 0.8481, meaning many traders are currently underwater.
🎯 Conclusion & Bias Outlook
Short-term bias: Neutral to bearish down to 0.8380
Mid-term bias: Moderately bullish if price holds above 0.8380 with higher lows confirmation
Ideal long entry could emerge from a retest of 0.8380 with bullish confirmation (candlestick or RSI support)
Alternatively, a clear H4 close below 0.8380 could open space down to 0.8280
📊 Technical Analysis
Price action reveals a compression phase within a descending channel (corrective flag), followed by a breakout to the upside last week. Price reached the supply zone between 0.8480 and 0.8535, which triggered a strong bearish candle rejection.
Currently, the pair is testing support around 0.8400–0.8380, a level previously defended by buyers.
The RSI bounced from oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a consolidation phase or sideways movement, rather than a clear divergence.
📌 Key Levels
Dynamic Resistance: 0.8480 – 0.8535
Structural Support: 0.8380 – 0.8285
Upside breakout target (if momentum builds): 0.8660
📅 Seasonality
Historically, June tends to be slightly bullish for EUR/GBP, especially on the 5-year and 10-year seasonal patterns. Curves indicate upward pressure between the second and third weeks of the month, suggesting that any retracement could present a seasonal long opportunity.
💼 COT Report
Euro FX
Non-Commercials reduced both longs (-1.7K) and shorts (-6.7K) → signaling indecision or rebalancing.
Net positioning remains positive, but momentum is fading.
British Pound
Non-Commercials added significantly to longs (+14.2K) and slightly to shorts (+2.8K) → GBP is attracting bullish interest.
This could reduce upside pressure on EUR/GBP in the short term.
Overall, COT data currently favors the British Pound in the near term.
📈 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are heavily skewed to the long side (74% long), which may create contrarian downside pressure if the market moves against the crowd. The average entry price is around 0.8481, meaning many traders are currently underwater.
🎯 Conclusion & Bias Outlook
Short-term bias: Neutral to bearish down to 0.8380
Mid-term bias: Moderately bullish if price holds above 0.8380 with higher lows confirmation
Ideal long entry could emerge from a retest of 0.8380 with bullish confirmation (candlestick or RSI support)
Alternatively, a clear H4 close below 0.8380 could open space down to 0.8280
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.