While the US dollar is the weakest major currency on the foreign exchange (FX) market this year 2025, and the question of its low point arises, two other currencies seem important to me to put under close watch for this month of July: the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the Hong Kong dollar (HKD). To begin with, you can reread our latest analysis below (by clicking on the chart), which raises the question of a possible future low point for the US dollar on the FX.
The British pound, which was buoyed by positive momentum at the start of the year, is now facing fiscal and bond risks that are weakening it. At the same time, the Hong Kong dollar is testing the solidity of its parity mechanism with the greenback, forcing the local monetary authority to step up interventions to preserve its credibility. The EUR/GBP rate could be a good strategy for hedging against the risk of a fall in sterling. As for the USD/HKD rate, the upper end of the PEG could once again provide good resistance for a trading strategy.
1) Sterling is under pressure from UK bond yields, and the EUR/GBP rate presents an interesting chart configuration
The EUR/GBP rate, a barometer of confidence in the British currency, could come under upward pressure if UK budget fears persist. Tensions intensified after Keir Starmer's Labour government abandoned several budget-saving measures, deepening an already worrying deficit. As a result, yields on 30-year British government bonds jumped 19 basis points in a single session, their biggest rise since April, triggering a sharp decline in the pound. This context is reminiscent of the episodes of 2022 under Liz Truss, when British fiscal credibility wavered sharply. In the short term, the prospect of an autumn tax hike by Chancellor Rachel Reeves could fuel volatility.
From a technical analysis point of view, the EUR/GBP rate is following an underlying uptrend, and the guarantor of this trend is support at 0.8250. We must therefore keep a close eye on the evolution of British long rates and tax announcements, which will condition the trajectory of the EUR/GBP rate. If British debt continues to worry the market, then the EUR/GBP rate could continue its rise towards resistance at 0.90. Breaking support at 0.8250 would invalidate this chart scenario.
2) The USD/HKD rate is testing the upper end of the PEG defended by the Hong Kong monetary authorities
The USD/HKD rate is once again testing the upper limit of the “peg” set between 7.75 and 7.85 HKD per US dollar. Since the end of June, the weakness of local interest rates, with the one-month Hibor falling to 0.86%, i.e. almost 350 basis points below the cost of the dollar, has encouraged speculative positions against the Hong Kong dollar. To defend parity, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened on several occasions, repurchasing a total of 59 billion Hong Kong dollars and significantly reducing the liquidity of the banking system. The latest operation, for HK$29.6 billion, is testimony to the extent of the pressure on the peg.
For traders, this context offers short-term technical opportunities, by playing the bounces near the upper limit of the convertibility band. Nevertheless, the persistence of a high interest-rate differential between the United States and Hong Kong raises the risk of prolonged tension. In recent years, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has always succeeded in preventing the 7.85 resistance level from being breached, but caution and risk awareness are required before using this resistance for FX trading strategies.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The British pound, which was buoyed by positive momentum at the start of the year, is now facing fiscal and bond risks that are weakening it. At the same time, the Hong Kong dollar is testing the solidity of its parity mechanism with the greenback, forcing the local monetary authority to step up interventions to preserve its credibility. The EUR/GBP rate could be a good strategy for hedging against the risk of a fall in sterling. As for the USD/HKD rate, the upper end of the PEG could once again provide good resistance for a trading strategy.
1) Sterling is under pressure from UK bond yields, and the EUR/GBP rate presents an interesting chart configuration
The EUR/GBP rate, a barometer of confidence in the British currency, could come under upward pressure if UK budget fears persist. Tensions intensified after Keir Starmer's Labour government abandoned several budget-saving measures, deepening an already worrying deficit. As a result, yields on 30-year British government bonds jumped 19 basis points in a single session, their biggest rise since April, triggering a sharp decline in the pound. This context is reminiscent of the episodes of 2022 under Liz Truss, when British fiscal credibility wavered sharply. In the short term, the prospect of an autumn tax hike by Chancellor Rachel Reeves could fuel volatility.
From a technical analysis point of view, the EUR/GBP rate is following an underlying uptrend, and the guarantor of this trend is support at 0.8250. We must therefore keep a close eye on the evolution of British long rates and tax announcements, which will condition the trajectory of the EUR/GBP rate. If British debt continues to worry the market, then the EUR/GBP rate could continue its rise towards resistance at 0.90. Breaking support at 0.8250 would invalidate this chart scenario.
2) The USD/HKD rate is testing the upper end of the PEG defended by the Hong Kong monetary authorities
The USD/HKD rate is once again testing the upper limit of the “peg” set between 7.75 and 7.85 HKD per US dollar. Since the end of June, the weakness of local interest rates, with the one-month Hibor falling to 0.86%, i.e. almost 350 basis points below the cost of the dollar, has encouraged speculative positions against the Hong Kong dollar. To defend parity, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened on several occasions, repurchasing a total of 59 billion Hong Kong dollars and significantly reducing the liquidity of the banking system. The latest operation, for HK$29.6 billion, is testimony to the extent of the pressure on the peg.
For traders, this context offers short-term technical opportunities, by playing the bounces near the upper limit of the convertibility band. Nevertheless, the persistence of a high interest-rate differential between the United States and Hong Kong raises the risk of prolonged tension. In recent years, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has always succeeded in preventing the 7.85 resistance level from being breached, but caution and risk awareness are required before using this resistance for FX trading strategies.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.