Macro Data Highlights:
US May New Home Sales
Expectations: Potential rebound after recent housing softness.
Market Impact: A strong print may bolster the view that the housing market is stabilizing despite elevated mortgage rates. Weakness could reinforce recessionary concerns and increase calls for Fed easing later in the year.
Asset sensitivity: USD, US Treasuries, homebuilder stocks (e.g., DHI, LEN).
Japan May PPI Services
Focus: Cost pressures in the service sector.
Market Impact: A rise in service PPI would support the BoJ’s inflation persistence narrative, adding weight to the case for policy normalization.
Asset sensitivity: JPY, JGB yields, Japanese equities.
France June Consumer Confidence
Focus: Consumer resilience in the face of political uncertainty and inflation.
Market Impact: With France facing election-driven volatility, a sharp drop could signal consumption headwinds for the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
Asset sensitivity: EUR, CAC 40, French bond spreads.
EU27 May New Car Registrations
Focus: Gauge of consumer durable goods demand and manufacturing health.
Market Impact: Could affect sentiment toward auto-sector equities and EU industrial momentum.
Asset sensitivity: EUR, auto stocks (VW, Stellantis), DAX.
Australia May CPI
Critical Watch: This is the main event for the AUD and RBA rate outlook.
Market Impact: A hotter-than-expected reading would raise RBA rate hike odds and could trigger AUD upside and bond sell-off. A soft print would ease policy pressure.
Asset sensitivity: AUD, ASX, Australian government bonds.
Central Bank Watch:
Fed Chair Powell Testimony (Senate Banking Committee)
Theme: Economic outlook, inflation, and the policy path.
Market Impact: Markets will scrutinize language for any shift in tone regarding rate cuts. With data cooling but inflation still sticky, Powell’s balance between patience and flexibility is key.
Asset sensitivity: USD, S&P 500, Fed rate futures.
BoJ June Meeting Summary & Tamura Speech
Focus: Clarity on BoJ's policy tightening roadmap.
Market Impact: Look for signals on timing of next rate hike and QT strategy. Tamura is considered hawkish, and any comments on rate paths could strengthen JPY.
Asset sensitivity: JPY crosses, Nikkei, JGBs.
BoE’s Lombardelli Speech
Relevance: Comes amid UK stagflation fears.
Market Impact: Insight into how the BoE sees services inflation persistence and wage dynamics. Market remains torn between one last hike or holding steady.
Asset sensitivity: GBP, Gilt yields, FTSE.
Earnings:
Micron Technology (MU)
Focus: AI-driven memory chip demand, China exposure, forward guidance.
Market Impact: As a bellwether for semis and AI-linked cyclicals, MU's results can sway broader tech sentiment.
Asset sensitivity: NASDAQ, SOX index, NVDA/AMD peers.
US Treasury Auctions:
2-Year FRN & 5-Year Note Auctions
Importance: Critical given recent curve steepening and softening inflation.
Market Impact: Weak demand could lift yields and support USD; strong bid-to-cover may indicate confidence in disinflation trend and support risk assets.
Asset sensitivity: US Treasuries, DXY, equity risk sentiment.
Overall Outlook:
June 25 shapes up as a high-stakes day, especially for the USD, AUD, and JPY, with potential for meaningful moves in rates and risk assets. Powell’s tone and Australian inflation are key pivot points, while Micron’s earnings will offer a litmus test for AI/tech exuberance. Keep an eye on European political sentiment as well, especially tied to French consumer mood.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US May New Home Sales
Expectations: Potential rebound after recent housing softness.
Market Impact: A strong print may bolster the view that the housing market is stabilizing despite elevated mortgage rates. Weakness could reinforce recessionary concerns and increase calls for Fed easing later in the year.
Asset sensitivity: USD, US Treasuries, homebuilder stocks (e.g., DHI, LEN).
Japan May PPI Services
Focus: Cost pressures in the service sector.
Market Impact: A rise in service PPI would support the BoJ’s inflation persistence narrative, adding weight to the case for policy normalization.
Asset sensitivity: JPY, JGB yields, Japanese equities.
France June Consumer Confidence
Focus: Consumer resilience in the face of political uncertainty and inflation.
Market Impact: With France facing election-driven volatility, a sharp drop could signal consumption headwinds for the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
Asset sensitivity: EUR, CAC 40, French bond spreads.
EU27 May New Car Registrations
Focus: Gauge of consumer durable goods demand and manufacturing health.
Market Impact: Could affect sentiment toward auto-sector equities and EU industrial momentum.
Asset sensitivity: EUR, auto stocks (VW, Stellantis), DAX.
Australia May CPI
Critical Watch: This is the main event for the AUD and RBA rate outlook.
Market Impact: A hotter-than-expected reading would raise RBA rate hike odds and could trigger AUD upside and bond sell-off. A soft print would ease policy pressure.
Asset sensitivity: AUD, ASX, Australian government bonds.
Central Bank Watch:
Fed Chair Powell Testimony (Senate Banking Committee)
Theme: Economic outlook, inflation, and the policy path.
Market Impact: Markets will scrutinize language for any shift in tone regarding rate cuts. With data cooling but inflation still sticky, Powell’s balance between patience and flexibility is key.
Asset sensitivity: USD, S&P 500, Fed rate futures.
BoJ June Meeting Summary & Tamura Speech
Focus: Clarity on BoJ's policy tightening roadmap.
Market Impact: Look for signals on timing of next rate hike and QT strategy. Tamura is considered hawkish, and any comments on rate paths could strengthen JPY.
Asset sensitivity: JPY crosses, Nikkei, JGBs.
BoE’s Lombardelli Speech
Relevance: Comes amid UK stagflation fears.
Market Impact: Insight into how the BoE sees services inflation persistence and wage dynamics. Market remains torn between one last hike or holding steady.
Asset sensitivity: GBP, Gilt yields, FTSE.
Earnings:
Micron Technology (MU)
Focus: AI-driven memory chip demand, China exposure, forward guidance.
Market Impact: As a bellwether for semis and AI-linked cyclicals, MU's results can sway broader tech sentiment.
Asset sensitivity: NASDAQ, SOX index, NVDA/AMD peers.
US Treasury Auctions:
2-Year FRN & 5-Year Note Auctions
Importance: Critical given recent curve steepening and softening inflation.
Market Impact: Weak demand could lift yields and support USD; strong bid-to-cover may indicate confidence in disinflation trend and support risk assets.
Asset sensitivity: US Treasuries, DXY, equity risk sentiment.
Overall Outlook:
June 25 shapes up as a high-stakes day, especially for the USD, AUD, and JPY, with potential for meaningful moves in rates and risk assets. Powell’s tone and Australian inflation are key pivot points, while Micron’s earnings will offer a litmus test for AI/tech exuberance. Keep an eye on European political sentiment as well, especially tied to French consumer mood.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.