EURJPY has bounced off a critical demand zone and is showing signs of a bullish recovery. Despite the recent pullback, the pair’s structure remains fundamentally and technically bullish, driven by JPY weakness and EUR resilience.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Pattern: Price tested a strong demand zone near 170.35–170.50 and rejected it aggressively.
Current Level: 170.77, starting a potential bullish leg toward higher resistance levels.
Key Support Levels:
170.35 – key demand zone and invalidation level for bulls.
169.90 – deeper support if demand zone breaks.
Resistance Levels:
172.17 – first bullish target and interim resistance.
173.64 – major target if bullish continuation sustains.
Projection: A successful rebound from 170.35 could drive price toward 172.17 initially, then 173.64 if momentum holds.
Fundamental Analysis
Bias: Bullish.
Key Fundamentals:
EUR: ECB’s slower path toward easing supports EUR stability relative to JPY.
JPY: Weakness persists as BoJ maintains dovish bias, though FX intervention risk limits JPY downside speed.
Global Sentiment: Mild risk-on mood supports EUR strength against JPY.
Risks:
BoJ verbal intervention or actual FX intervention could trigger temporary JPY strength.
Sharp reversal in global risk sentiment could weaken EUR/JPY.
Key Events:
ECB speeches and data (CPI, growth updates).
BoJ FX comments and broader market risk appetite.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
EUR/JPY is a leader among JPY pairs, often moving in sync with GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY. Its movement also tends to precede confirmation in risk-sensitive JPY crosses.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EUR/JPY is bullish from the 170.35 demand zone, with a potential move toward 172.17 and 173.64. Key watchpoints include ECB communication, BoJ stance, and market risk sentiment. As long as 170.35 holds, bulls remain in control.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Pattern: Price tested a strong demand zone near 170.35–170.50 and rejected it aggressively.
Current Level: 170.77, starting a potential bullish leg toward higher resistance levels.
Key Support Levels:
170.35 – key demand zone and invalidation level for bulls.
169.90 – deeper support if demand zone breaks.
Resistance Levels:
172.17 – first bullish target and interim resistance.
173.64 – major target if bullish continuation sustains.
Projection: A successful rebound from 170.35 could drive price toward 172.17 initially, then 173.64 if momentum holds.
Fundamental Analysis
Bias: Bullish.
Key Fundamentals:
EUR: ECB’s slower path toward easing supports EUR stability relative to JPY.
JPY: Weakness persists as BoJ maintains dovish bias, though FX intervention risk limits JPY downside speed.
Global Sentiment: Mild risk-on mood supports EUR strength against JPY.
Risks:
BoJ verbal intervention or actual FX intervention could trigger temporary JPY strength.
Sharp reversal in global risk sentiment could weaken EUR/JPY.
Key Events:
ECB speeches and data (CPI, growth updates).
BoJ FX comments and broader market risk appetite.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
EUR/JPY is a leader among JPY pairs, often moving in sync with GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY. Its movement also tends to precede confirmation in risk-sensitive JPY crosses.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EUR/JPY is bullish from the 170.35 demand zone, with a potential move toward 172.17 and 173.64. Key watchpoints include ECB communication, BoJ stance, and market risk sentiment. As long as 170.35 holds, bulls remain in control.
Note
JPY Weakness: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is still cautious about aggressive rate hikes despite FX intervention risks. This keeps JPY fundamentally weak against high-yielding currencies.Relative Strength of EUR, GBP, CHF:
EUR is supported by slower ECB easing relative to Fed expectations.
GBP benefits from the BOE’s cautious stance due to sticky inflation.
CHF is gaining from safe-haven appeal amid trade tensions, and rate cuts from SNB are expected to be slower than Fed cuts.
Risk Sentiment: A risk-on environment (stocks recovering after Fed cut expectations) supports risk currencies like EUR and GBP against JPY.
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📲 Join Us on Telegram
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🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.