EURJPY has climbed back into a key resistance area near 172.40–172.50, a zone that previously triggered sharp selling pressure. Price action suggests exhaustion at these highs, with a possible rotation back toward support if sellers defend this zone again. Given the yen’s safe-haven role and the euro’s sensitivity to ECB policy shifts, this setup is primed for a potential reversal play.
Current Bias
Bearish – The pair is showing rejection signs at resistance, favoring downside toward lower support levels.
Key Fundamental Drivers
ECB Outlook: The ECB is cautious, with slowing eurozone growth limiting room for further tightening, reducing euro strength.
BOJ Policy & Yen Flows: Yen remains supported by safe-haven demand and speculation around BOJ gradually tightening, even if modestly.
Risk Sentiment: Global equity volatility and tariff/geopolitical risks support yen buying when risk-off flows emerge.
Macro Context
Interest Rates: ECB is holding policy steady but leans dovish relative to other central banks. Japan remains ultra-loose, but any hint of normalization sparks yen strength.
Economic Growth: Eurozone growth is fragile, with Germany’s industrial sector under pressure. Japan’s economy is steady, though export-driven, making it vulnerable to global demand.
Geopolitics: Trade tariffs, US-China tensions, and Middle East risks all lean supportive for the yen as a safe haven.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A hawkish ECB surprise or strong eurozone inflation rebound could shift bias back to the upside, invalidating the bearish setup.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
ECB Minutes & Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate
BOJ Commentary on Yield Curve Control (YCC)
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
EURJPY tends to act as a lagger, following flows in broader yen crosses like USDJPY (as a leader) and EURUSD (for euro sentiment). Movements in EURJPY often confirm rather than lead directional bias in FX markets.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 171.42, 170.99, 170.65, 170.08, 169.73
Resistance Levels: 172.47, 173.31
Stop Loss (SL): 173.31 (above resistance zone)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 171.42
TP2: 170.65
TP3: 170.08
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
Bias on EURJPY is bearish, with sellers looking to defend the 172.40–172.50 resistance area. A stop loss is best placed above 173.31, while downside targets stretch toward 171.42 → 170.65 → 170.08. Fundamentally, the euro faces growth headwinds while the yen benefits from safe-haven demand, though BOJ policy risks remain in play. The most important watchpoint is ECB and Eurozone CPI data, which could either reinforce the bearish case or shift sentiment sharply. For now, EURJPY looks vulnerable to a deeper correction, with price action aligned to favor sellers.
Current Bias
Bearish – The pair is showing rejection signs at resistance, favoring downside toward lower support levels.
Key Fundamental Drivers
ECB Outlook: The ECB is cautious, with slowing eurozone growth limiting room for further tightening, reducing euro strength.
BOJ Policy & Yen Flows: Yen remains supported by safe-haven demand and speculation around BOJ gradually tightening, even if modestly.
Risk Sentiment: Global equity volatility and tariff/geopolitical risks support yen buying when risk-off flows emerge.
Macro Context
Interest Rates: ECB is holding policy steady but leans dovish relative to other central banks. Japan remains ultra-loose, but any hint of normalization sparks yen strength.
Economic Growth: Eurozone growth is fragile, with Germany’s industrial sector under pressure. Japan’s economy is steady, though export-driven, making it vulnerable to global demand.
Geopolitics: Trade tariffs, US-China tensions, and Middle East risks all lean supportive for the yen as a safe haven.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A hawkish ECB surprise or strong eurozone inflation rebound could shift bias back to the upside, invalidating the bearish setup.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
ECB Minutes & Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate
BOJ Commentary on Yield Curve Control (YCC)
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
EURJPY tends to act as a lagger, following flows in broader yen crosses like USDJPY (as a leader) and EURUSD (for euro sentiment). Movements in EURJPY often confirm rather than lead directional bias in FX markets.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 171.42, 170.99, 170.65, 170.08, 169.73
Resistance Levels: 172.47, 173.31
Stop Loss (SL): 173.31 (above resistance zone)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 171.42
TP2: 170.65
TP3: 170.08
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
Bias on EURJPY is bearish, with sellers looking to defend the 172.40–172.50 resistance area. A stop loss is best placed above 173.31, while downside targets stretch toward 171.42 → 170.65 → 170.08. Fundamentally, the euro faces growth headwinds while the yen benefits from safe-haven demand, though BOJ policy risks remain in play. The most important watchpoint is ECB and Eurozone CPI data, which could either reinforce the bearish case or shift sentiment sharply. For now, EURJPY looks vulnerable to a deeper correction, with price action aligned to favor sellers.
Trade closed: target reached
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✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
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ultreosforex.com/
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.