EUR/JPY Economic Data, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–31, 2025)
Key Economic Data Releases (May 25–31, 2025)
Date Time (UTC) Region Event Impact Previous Consensus
May 25 18:40 USD Fed Chair Powell Speech High — —
May 25 23:01 EUR Consumer Confidence (May) Low 58.7 59.1
May 26 05:00 EUR PPI YoY (Apr) Low 0.5% 1.1%
May 26 05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index (Mar) Low 108.2 107.7
May 26 05:00 JPY Coincident Index (Mar) Low 117.3 116.0
May 26 10:00 EUR Balance of Trade (Mar) Low -€0.61B -€0.68B
May 28 06:45 EUR GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) Low -0.1% 0.1%
May 28 07:55 EUR Unemployment Rate (May) High 6.3% 6.3%
May 29 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence (May) High 31.2 31.8
May 29 23:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (May) Low 3.4% 3.5%
Key Focus: Eurozone unemployment (May 28) and Japanese consumer confidence (May 29) are high-impact events. Fed Chair Powell’s speech (May 25) may also influence USD-driven crosswinds in EUR/JPY.
10-Year Bond Yields (as of May 22–24, 2025)
Eurozone 10-Year Yield: 3.17% (up from 3.15% previous day, 3.10% YoY) .
Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: 1.57% (up from 1.53% previous day, 1.01% YoY) .
Interest Rate Differential:3.17%(EUR)−1.57% (JPY)=+1.60% the 3.17% (EUR)−1.57% (JPY)=+1.60%
Carry Trade Advantage
The 1.60% yield spread favors the euro, making EUR/JPY attractive for carry trades. Investors borrow JPY at low rates and invest in EUR-denominated assets to profit from the differential.
Key Considerations:
Upcoming Data Impact:
Stronger-than-expected Eurozone data (e.g., GDP, unemployment) could widen the yield spread, boosting EUR/JPY.
Higher Japanese CPI or consumer confidence might tighten BoJ policy, raising JGB yields and narrowing the spread.
Technical Outlook:
EUR/JPY is sensitive to risk sentiment. Geopolitical tensions or USD volatility (from Powell’s speech) could disrupt carry trade flows.
Historical Context:
The Eurozone yield is above its long-term average (2.48%) , while Japan’s remains below its average (2.06%) , reflecting divergent monetary policies.
Summary Table
Metric Eurozone (EURO Japan (JPY)
10-Year Bond Yield 3.17% 1.57%
Interest Rate Differential +1.60% —
Key Economic Events Unemployment, GDP Consumer Confidence, CPI
Conclusion
The EUR/JPY pair is supported by a 1.60% yield differential, favoring carry trades. However, upcoming Eurozone unemployment data (May 28) and Japanese consumer confidence (May 29) could shift bond yields and the exchange rate. Traders should monitor these releases alongside broader risk sentiment to assess carry trade viability.
#EURJPY
Key Economic Data Releases (May 25–31, 2025)
Date Time (UTC) Region Event Impact Previous Consensus
May 25 18:40 USD Fed Chair Powell Speech High — —
May 25 23:01 EUR Consumer Confidence (May) Low 58.7 59.1
May 26 05:00 EUR PPI YoY (Apr) Low 0.5% 1.1%
May 26 05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index (Mar) Low 108.2 107.7
May 26 05:00 JPY Coincident Index (Mar) Low 117.3 116.0
May 26 10:00 EUR Balance of Trade (Mar) Low -€0.61B -€0.68B
May 28 06:45 EUR GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) Low -0.1% 0.1%
May 28 07:55 EUR Unemployment Rate (May) High 6.3% 6.3%
May 29 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence (May) High 31.2 31.8
May 29 23:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (May) Low 3.4% 3.5%
Key Focus: Eurozone unemployment (May 28) and Japanese consumer confidence (May 29) are high-impact events. Fed Chair Powell’s speech (May 25) may also influence USD-driven crosswinds in EUR/JPY.
10-Year Bond Yields (as of May 22–24, 2025)
Eurozone 10-Year Yield: 3.17% (up from 3.15% previous day, 3.10% YoY) .
Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: 1.57% (up from 1.53% previous day, 1.01% YoY) .
Interest Rate Differential:3.17%(EUR)−1.57% (JPY)=+1.60% the 3.17% (EUR)−1.57% (JPY)=+1.60%
Carry Trade Advantage
The 1.60% yield spread favors the euro, making EUR/JPY attractive for carry trades. Investors borrow JPY at low rates and invest in EUR-denominated assets to profit from the differential.
Key Considerations:
Upcoming Data Impact:
Stronger-than-expected Eurozone data (e.g., GDP, unemployment) could widen the yield spread, boosting EUR/JPY.
Higher Japanese CPI or consumer confidence might tighten BoJ policy, raising JGB yields and narrowing the spread.
Technical Outlook:
EUR/JPY is sensitive to risk sentiment. Geopolitical tensions or USD volatility (from Powell’s speech) could disrupt carry trade flows.
Historical Context:
The Eurozone yield is above its long-term average (2.48%) , while Japan’s remains below its average (2.06%) , reflecting divergent monetary policies.
Summary Table
Metric Eurozone (EURO Japan (JPY)
10-Year Bond Yield 3.17% 1.57%
Interest Rate Differential +1.60% —
Key Economic Events Unemployment, GDP Consumer Confidence, CPI
Conclusion
The EUR/JPY pair is supported by a 1.60% yield differential, favoring carry trades. However, upcoming Eurozone unemployment data (May 28) and Japanese consumer confidence (May 29) could shift bond yields and the exchange rate. Traders should monitor these releases alongside broader risk sentiment to assess carry trade viability.
#EURJPY
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.