EURNZD – A Short at the Edge: Counter-Trend Setup Brewing ⚠️
When the crowd rushes one way, sometimes the edge is found in going the other. EURNZD has been marching higher, but momentum is stalling — and we’re now seeing cracks at resistance. It’s a counter-trend idea, no doubt, but the setup is clean, the risk is tight, and the timing may be right.
📉 I’m bearish on EURNZD — looking to short from overbought levels at resistance.
Here’s why I’m watching this:
🔹 Price is extended and showing signs of exhaustion on the 4H chart
🔹 Both EUR and NZD are fundamentally weak — this rally is not supported by strong divergence
🔹 Sell signals are emerging from price action near key resistance ⚒️
🔹 Sentiment on NZD has recently turned bullish 📈
🔹 The EUR remains inflated after a 17% run since February — overbought conditions ripe for mean reversion 🔄
Let’s zoom in 🔍
The Euro’s strength is largely speculative and now front-loaded — boosted by the confirmation of a US-EU trade deal 🤝 and hopes that the ECB may pause further cuts 🧊. But the underlying data tells another story: sluggish growth 📉, weak consumption 🛒, and a fragile macro backdrop ⚠️.
Meanwhile, the Kiwi is quietly gaining ground 🥝. Business confidence just hit an 11-year high 🚀, inflation is stabilizing, and the RBNZ is signaling a pause 🧭 after aggressive easing — suggesting the worst may be behind.
Yes, the long-term trend is up 📊 — but this is a short-term idea. Markets are overstretched, price action confirms hesitation ⚖️, and there’s room to fade this move before the next leg is decided.
🤔 Would you take this short? Or do you think momentum carries it higher still? Let’s hear it.
When the crowd rushes one way, sometimes the edge is found in going the other. EURNZD has been marching higher, but momentum is stalling — and we’re now seeing cracks at resistance. It’s a counter-trend idea, no doubt, but the setup is clean, the risk is tight, and the timing may be right.
📉 I’m bearish on EURNZD — looking to short from overbought levels at resistance.
Here’s why I’m watching this:
🔹 Price is extended and showing signs of exhaustion on the 4H chart
🔹 Both EUR and NZD are fundamentally weak — this rally is not supported by strong divergence
🔹 Sell signals are emerging from price action near key resistance ⚒️
🔹 Sentiment on NZD has recently turned bullish 📈
🔹 The EUR remains inflated after a 17% run since February — overbought conditions ripe for mean reversion 🔄
Let’s zoom in 🔍
The Euro’s strength is largely speculative and now front-loaded — boosted by the confirmation of a US-EU trade deal 🤝 and hopes that the ECB may pause further cuts 🧊. But the underlying data tells another story: sluggish growth 📉, weak consumption 🛒, and a fragile macro backdrop ⚠️.
Meanwhile, the Kiwi is quietly gaining ground 🥝. Business confidence just hit an 11-year high 🚀, inflation is stabilizing, and the RBNZ is signaling a pause 🧭 after aggressive easing — suggesting the worst may be behind.
Yes, the long-term trend is up 📊 — but this is a short-term idea. Markets are overstretched, price action confirms hesitation ⚖️, and there’s room to fade this move before the next leg is decided.
🤔 Would you take this short? Or do you think momentum carries it higher still? Let’s hear it.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.