In the current market context, EURNZD is showing a highly compelling technical and fundamental structure for both short- and medium-term opportunities. After a prolonged retracement from the March highs, the price has strongly reacted from a clearly defined weekly demand zone between 1.8712 and 1.8600.
From a technical perspective, this reaction aligns with a moderate RSI divergence and a still intact macro bullish market structure, despite the corrective nature of recent weeks.
However, what truly validates this setup goes beyond price action alone. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data strongly supports the long thesis. On the euro side, we observe a significant increase in commercial long positions (+14,659 contracts), signaling institutional hedging activity. At the same time, non-commercials (speculators) have been cutting their short positions, suggesting growing expectations of euro strength.
On the NZD side, the picture is even more decisive: non-commercials maintain a net short position of -40,444 contracts, with a further reduction in long positions. The speculative sentiment toward the NZD is clearly bearish and shows no signs of short-term reversal.
Adding to this, retail sentiment data currently shows that 59% of retail traders are short on EURNZD. From a contrarian perspective, this is particularly bullish — the crowd is selling while smart money is buying.
Seasonality also supports the setup: historically, the months of May and June have been positive for the euro and negative for the NZD, adding an additional statistical layer of confluence to the trade idea.
🎯 Conclusion
We may be witnessing the early stages of a new bullish leg on EURNZD. The 1.89 area represents a potential re-entry zone in the event of a retest. The medium-term target is set between 1.9300 and 1.9500.
Technical structure, institutional positioning, retail sentiment, and seasonality all align in favor of a clear bullish bias in the coming weeks.
From a technical perspective, this reaction aligns with a moderate RSI divergence and a still intact macro bullish market structure, despite the corrective nature of recent weeks.
However, what truly validates this setup goes beyond price action alone. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data strongly supports the long thesis. On the euro side, we observe a significant increase in commercial long positions (+14,659 contracts), signaling institutional hedging activity. At the same time, non-commercials (speculators) have been cutting their short positions, suggesting growing expectations of euro strength.
On the NZD side, the picture is even more decisive: non-commercials maintain a net short position of -40,444 contracts, with a further reduction in long positions. The speculative sentiment toward the NZD is clearly bearish and shows no signs of short-term reversal.
Adding to this, retail sentiment data currently shows that 59% of retail traders are short on EURNZD. From a contrarian perspective, this is particularly bullish — the crowd is selling while smart money is buying.
Seasonality also supports the setup: historically, the months of May and June have been positive for the euro and negative for the NZD, adding an additional statistical layer of confluence to the trade idea.
🎯 Conclusion
We may be witnessing the early stages of a new bullish leg on EURNZD. The 1.89 area represents a potential re-entry zone in the event of a retest. The medium-term target is set between 1.9300 and 1.9500.
Technical structure, institutional positioning, retail sentiment, and seasonality all align in favor of a clear bullish bias in the coming weeks.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.