EURNZD is currently trading around the 1.89 zone after successfully completing a retest of its prior breakout area. This level aligns perfectly with a key historical demand zone, where previous resistance has now flipped into strong support. The market structure remains bullish, and the recent higher-low formation combined with increased volume suggests the pair is gearing up for its next impulsive move to the upside. The price has respected the support zone with precision, signaling institutional interest and a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for long positions.
From a fundamental perspective, the euro remains relatively supported against the New Zealand dollar due to diverging monetary policy expectations. The European Central Bank is maintaining a cautious but slightly hawkish tone amid sticky core inflation, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is under pressure to ease policy later this year due to softening economic indicators, including a slowdown in GDP growth and weaker labor market conditions. These macro drivers favor a bullish bias on EURNZD as capital flow leans toward safer, yield-protected assets in the eurozone.
Technically, this setup has clean market geometry. The pair has broken through a multi-month consolidation structure and is now retesting the breakout with confluence from the main support zone at 1.88–1.89. With momentum building and volume increasing on the bounce, the setup is valid for a continuation toward the 1.99 level, especially if the pair reclaims the minor resistance at 1.9050. Breakout traders and position holders should monitor this area closely for confirmation.
Overall, this is a textbook bullish continuation play. The market has absorbed sell pressure at a critical level, and the successful retest confirms the strength of the new support base. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals aligned, this setup offers high potential for trend continuation, and I'm anticipating a strong move toward 1.99 in the coming weeks.
From a fundamental perspective, the euro remains relatively supported against the New Zealand dollar due to diverging monetary policy expectations. The European Central Bank is maintaining a cautious but slightly hawkish tone amid sticky core inflation, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is under pressure to ease policy later this year due to softening economic indicators, including a slowdown in GDP growth and weaker labor market conditions. These macro drivers favor a bullish bias on EURNZD as capital flow leans toward safer, yield-protected assets in the eurozone.
Technically, this setup has clean market geometry. The pair has broken through a multi-month consolidation structure and is now retesting the breakout with confluence from the main support zone at 1.88–1.89. With momentum building and volume increasing on the bounce, the setup is valid for a continuation toward the 1.99 level, especially if the pair reclaims the minor resistance at 1.9050. Breakout traders and position holders should monitor this area closely for confirmation.
Overall, this is a textbook bullish continuation play. The market has absorbed sell pressure at a critical level, and the successful retest confirms the strength of the new support base. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals aligned, this setup offers high potential for trend continuation, and I'm anticipating a strong move toward 1.99 in the coming weeks.
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