The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 2021-2022 move in EUR/USD has continued to produce inflections in the pair. It caught the high in 2023 at the 61.8% retracement of 1.1275. And then last year, it set the low in April that led into a vigorous bounce into the end of Q3. Along the way, the 50% marker of that major move was a sticking point producing multiple inflections on both sides of the pair.
And then as EUR/USD came into 2025 sliding lower, it was the 23.6% retracement that came into play to catch the lows at the 1.0200 handle in January. In February, bulls held a higher-low just above that price and by March, prices were ready to jump-higher.
More recently it was the 61.8% retracement at 1.1275 that was back in the picture and with EUR/USD breaking out now to fresh three-year-highs, the look goes up to the next level in the Fibonacci sequence at 1.1686, which is the 76.4% retracement from that same major move.
Notably, EUR/USD is back into overbought territory on weekly RSI and there's also a rising wedge here, often approached with aim of bearish reversal. All that said, bulls are still making the push but if we do see a USD turn stage around quarter-end or the start of Q3, I think EUR/USD remains one of the more attractive venues to seek that out. Meanwhile, both GBP/USD and USD/CAD remain of attraction for USD-weakness to continue. - js
And then as EUR/USD came into 2025 sliding lower, it was the 23.6% retracement that came into play to catch the lows at the 1.0200 handle in January. In February, bulls held a higher-low just above that price and by March, prices were ready to jump-higher.
More recently it was the 61.8% retracement at 1.1275 that was back in the picture and with EUR/USD breaking out now to fresh three-year-highs, the look goes up to the next level in the Fibonacci sequence at 1.1686, which is the 76.4% retracement from that same major move.
Notably, EUR/USD is back into overbought territory on weekly RSI and there's also a rising wedge here, often approached with aim of bearish reversal. All that said, bulls are still making the push but if we do see a USD turn stage around quarter-end or the start of Q3, I think EUR/USD remains one of the more attractive venues to seek that out. Meanwhile, both GBP/USD and USD/CAD remain of attraction for USD-weakness to continue. - js
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.