📊 Technical Context (Daily)
EUR/USD is currently in a corrective phase following the strong June rebound from the 1.1450 area, which culminated in a high near the 1.1850 supply zone.
The recent bearish move has pushed the pair back into a key demand area between 1.1450 and 1.1550, a zone that has acted as support multiple times in the past.
The latest weekly candle shows a potential bullish exhaustion signal (long lower wick), with the RSI hovering in oversold territory.
📌 Primary scenario: Possible consolidation above 1.1550 followed by a bullish continuation toward 1.1750–1.1800.
📌 Alternative scenario: Break of the recent lows could lead to a deeper retest of the 1.1350 zone.
📈 COT (Commitment of Traders)
Non-commercial positioning shows growing bullish interest in the euro:
EUR: +971 new longs, -6,654 shorts → strong increase in net long exposure.
USD Index: -267 longs, +92 spreads → signs of institutional indecision on the dollar.
This suggests a favorable shift toward the euro by smart money.
💡 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders remain heavily short on EUR/USD (63% short) with an average entry price of 1.1579.
This reinforces the contrarian bullish case, as retail traders are trapped short in a potential reversal zone.
📆 Seasonality
Historically, July has been a bullish month for EUR/USD:
➕ 2Y average return: +0.0287
➕ 5Y average return: +0.0166
This supports a seasonal bullish bias aligning with the current technical setup.
✅ Operational Outlook
EUR/USD is trading at a technically and macroeconomically significant area. The confluence of:
Weekly demand zone being tested
RSI in oversold conditions
COT positioning favoring the euro
Retail sentiment skewed short
Bullish seasonality
…makes a bullish bounce plausible in the coming weeks, with a first target at 1.1750. Invalidation level below 1.1450.
📌 Bias: Moderately Bullish
📍 Technical Activation Zone: Above 1.1550 with confirmed bullish price action
EUR/USD is currently in a corrective phase following the strong June rebound from the 1.1450 area, which culminated in a high near the 1.1850 supply zone.
The recent bearish move has pushed the pair back into a key demand area between 1.1450 and 1.1550, a zone that has acted as support multiple times in the past.
The latest weekly candle shows a potential bullish exhaustion signal (long lower wick), with the RSI hovering in oversold territory.
📌 Primary scenario: Possible consolidation above 1.1550 followed by a bullish continuation toward 1.1750–1.1800.
📌 Alternative scenario: Break of the recent lows could lead to a deeper retest of the 1.1350 zone.
📈 COT (Commitment of Traders)
Non-commercial positioning shows growing bullish interest in the euro:
EUR: +971 new longs, -6,654 shorts → strong increase in net long exposure.
USD Index: -267 longs, +92 spreads → signs of institutional indecision on the dollar.
This suggests a favorable shift toward the euro by smart money.
💡 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders remain heavily short on EUR/USD (63% short) with an average entry price of 1.1579.
This reinforces the contrarian bullish case, as retail traders are trapped short in a potential reversal zone.
📆 Seasonality
Historically, July has been a bullish month for EUR/USD:
➕ 2Y average return: +0.0287
➕ 5Y average return: +0.0166
This supports a seasonal bullish bias aligning with the current technical setup.
✅ Operational Outlook
EUR/USD is trading at a technically and macroeconomically significant area. The confluence of:
Weekly demand zone being tested
RSI in oversold conditions
COT positioning favoring the euro
Retail sentiment skewed short
Bullish seasonality
…makes a bullish bounce plausible in the coming weeks, with a first target at 1.1750. Invalidation level below 1.1450.
📌 Bias: Moderately Bullish
📍 Technical Activation Zone: Above 1.1550 with confirmed bullish price action
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.