EURUSD TRADE PLAN** 🔥
📅 Date: July 23, 2025
---
### 📋 Trade Plan Overview
| Plan ID | Type | Direction | Confidence | R\:R | Status |
| ----------------- | -------- | ----------------- | ---------- | ----- | ---------- |
| EURUSD-20250723-A | Swing | **Buy** (Primary) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) | 3.5:1 | 🕒 Waiting |
| EURUSD-20250723-B | Tactical | Sell (Alt. Setup) | ⭐⭐⭐ (65%) | 2.5:1 | 🕒 Waiting |
🧭 **Guidance:**
Favor the **buy plan** due to HTF trend and liquidity sweep setup. Sell setup is tactical against trend.
---
## 📈 Market Bias & Trade Type
* **Bias:** Bullish overall (HTF)
* **Trade Type A:** Continuation (Buy) - PRIMARY / PREFERRED
* **Trade Type B:** Countertrend (Sell) - ALTERNATIVE
---
## 🔰 Confidence Level Breakdown
* ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 80% (Buy Plan A)
* H4 OB + Volume Imbalance = 35%
* Fib Confluence = 25%
* Sentiment Score +6/10 = 10%
* DXY Divergence = 10%
* ⭐⭐⭐ 65% (Sell Plan B)
* Short-term exhaustion pattern
* Inducement to the downside
---
## 📍 Entry Zones & Status
### 🟩 **Primary Buy Zone**
* **Zone:** 1.1680 – 1.1705 (H4 OB + Fib 61.8%)
* **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting*
### 🟧 **Secondary Buy Zone**
* **Zone:** 1.1640 – 1.1660 (Deeper imbalance)
* **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting*
---
### 🟥 **Sell Zone (Scenario B)**
* **Zone:** 1.1760 – 1.1790 (Liquidity sweep, bearish engulfing risk)
* **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting*
---
## ❗ Stop Loss Levels
* **Buy SL:** 1.1620 (Below OB + 1.5x ATR)
* **Sell SL:** 1.1815 (Above H4 supply & wick inducement)
---
## 🎯 Take Profit Targets
* 🥇 **TP1:** 1.1745 (OB imbalance reclaim) – \~65 pips
* 🥈 **TP2:** 1.1785 (Swing high) – \~100 pips
* 🥉 **TP3:** 1.1840 (Full extension / trail) – *Swing only*
---
## 📏 Risk\:Reward
* Buy Plan A: **3.5:1** to TP2, **5.2:1** to TP3
* Sell Plan B: **2.5:1** to TP2
---
## 🧠 Management Strategy
* Risk: 1.0% of account ($\[X], \[Y] lots)
* SL to breakeven at TP1
* Take: 30% at TP1, 50% at TP2, trail final 20%
* Exit if: H4 BOS or USD Index flips strongly bullish
---
## ⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
* Bullish engulfing or inside bar (H1-H4)
* Volume confirmation on bounce (preferably NY or London open)
* Optional: M30 RSI divergence
* **Avoid:** FOMC / ECB pressers
---
## ⏳ Validity
* **Buy Plan (H4):** Valid 48–72 hours → until July 26
* **Sell Plan (H1):** Valid 12–16 hours → intraday only
---
## ❌ Invalidation Conditions
* Close below 1.1620 (Buy)
* Close above 1.1815 (Sell)
* Major USD macro shift
---
## 🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* COT: USD weak bias
* DXY: Retracing lower from 106.00
* Retail: 68% short EURUSD
* Cross-Pair: EURGBP also trending up
* Macro: EUR resilience post-ECB minutes
* Sentiment Score: **+6/10**
---
## 📋 Final Trade Summary
🟩 **Buy plan is preferred**, aligned with HTF trend, clean OB-Fib structure, and good RR.
🟥 **Sell plan** is tactical, potential liquidity grab before bullish continuation.
Both setups allow flexibility with proper confirmation and risk control.
---
Major EUR-related news is scheduled this week, and it's critical to factor into both trade timing and plan execution. Here's your ⚠️ Fundamental Update for EURUSD:
🌐 EUR Fundamental Events – This Week
Date Event Time (UTC) Impact Level Forecast / Notes
July 24 (Wed) 🇪🇺 Eurozone PMIs (Manu. & Services) 08:00 UTC 🔴 High Strong driver of EUR intraday volatility
July 25 (Thu) 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision 12:15 UTC 🔴🔴🔴 Very High Key market mover – Dovish = bearish EUR
ECB Press Conference 12:45 UTC 🔴🔴🔴 Critical High volatility expected
July 26 (Fri) 🇩🇪 IFO Business Climate 08:00 UTC 🟡 Medium Impactful for EUR strength sentiment
🔍 Implications for Your EURUSD Trade Plan
✅ Buy Plan
Wait until post-ECB OR only take the setup with strong candle confirmation, ideally after NY session pullback.
Hold reduced exposure before July 25 ECB to avoid whipsaw.
❌ Sell Plan
Be extremely cautious; if ECB is neutral/hawkish, any tactical short may get invalidated rapidly.
If you take the short, exit before Thursday's ECB, unless trailing with SL to breakeven.
📊 Summary:
Yes, major EUR events this week — especially Thursday's ECB — could invalidate technical setups or accelerate them violently. Patience + confirmation = priority. Avoid entry during red events. Let volatility settle.
Let me know if you'd like to pause your trade plan until post-news or want a modified low-volatility alternative!
🧠 Always manage risk tightly around macro events. This is not investment advice.
🧠 Fundamental Snapshot
🔵 EUR Macro Landscape:
Factor Signal Explanation
Inflation 🔼 Still elevated Keeps ECB hawkish bias alive
ECB Policy ⚠️ Potentially hawkish hold Market expects no cut, but hawkish tone could push EUR higher
Economic Activity ⚪ Mixed PMIs Slight slowdown, but not recessionary
COT/Positioning 🟢 Light EUR longs Room for upside without overcrowding
Retail Sentiment 🔴 Bearish crowd Contrarian signal supports buys
USD Pressure 🟠 Mixed Fed possibly done hiking, but US economy resilient
⚠️ ECB SCENARIOS (July 25):
Scenario Likelihood Market Reaction
🟢 Hawkish Hold (no cut, firm inflation tone) 60% 🔼 EURUSD likely rallies
🟡 Neutral/Dovish Hold 30% 🔄 EUR consolidates or fades spike
🔴 Surprise Cut / Dovish Pivot 10% 🔽 EUR drops hard – buy invalidated
Most institutional forecasts lean toward a hawkish or neutral hold, giving EURUSD room to rise after the event.
🎯 Conclusion:
✅ Fundamentals support a buy, especially post-ECB.
❗ Best entry is after July 25, when market digests Lagarde's tone.
🔄 If entering early, stay small and manage risk very tightly — ECB surprises = volatility.
📅 Date: July 23, 2025
---
### 📋 Trade Plan Overview
| Plan ID | Type | Direction | Confidence | R\:R | Status |
| ----------------- | -------- | ----------------- | ---------- | ----- | ---------- |
| EURUSD-20250723-A | Swing | **Buy** (Primary) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) | 3.5:1 | 🕒 Waiting |
| EURUSD-20250723-B | Tactical | Sell (Alt. Setup) | ⭐⭐⭐ (65%) | 2.5:1 | 🕒 Waiting |
🧭 **Guidance:**
Favor the **buy plan** due to HTF trend and liquidity sweep setup. Sell setup is tactical against trend.
---
## 📈 Market Bias & Trade Type
* **Bias:** Bullish overall (HTF)
* **Trade Type A:** Continuation (Buy) - PRIMARY / PREFERRED
* **Trade Type B:** Countertrend (Sell) - ALTERNATIVE
---
## 🔰 Confidence Level Breakdown
* ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 80% (Buy Plan A)
* H4 OB + Volume Imbalance = 35%
* Fib Confluence = 25%
* Sentiment Score +6/10 = 10%
* DXY Divergence = 10%
* ⭐⭐⭐ 65% (Sell Plan B)
* Short-term exhaustion pattern
* Inducement to the downside
---
## 📍 Entry Zones & Status
### 🟩 **Primary Buy Zone**
* **Zone:** 1.1680 – 1.1705 (H4 OB + Fib 61.8%)
* **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting*
### 🟧 **Secondary Buy Zone**
* **Zone:** 1.1640 – 1.1660 (Deeper imbalance)
* **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting*
---
### 🟥 **Sell Zone (Scenario B)**
* **Zone:** 1.1760 – 1.1790 (Liquidity sweep, bearish engulfing risk)
* **Status:** 🕒 *Waiting*
---
## ❗ Stop Loss Levels
* **Buy SL:** 1.1620 (Below OB + 1.5x ATR)
* **Sell SL:** 1.1815 (Above H4 supply & wick inducement)
---
## 🎯 Take Profit Targets
* 🥇 **TP1:** 1.1745 (OB imbalance reclaim) – \~65 pips
* 🥈 **TP2:** 1.1785 (Swing high) – \~100 pips
* 🥉 **TP3:** 1.1840 (Full extension / trail) – *Swing only*
---
## 📏 Risk\:Reward
* Buy Plan A: **3.5:1** to TP2, **5.2:1** to TP3
* Sell Plan B: **2.5:1** to TP2
---
## 🧠 Management Strategy
* Risk: 1.0% of account ($\[X], \[Y] lots)
* SL to breakeven at TP1
* Take: 30% at TP1, 50% at TP2, trail final 20%
* Exit if: H4 BOS or USD Index flips strongly bullish
---
## ⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
* Bullish engulfing or inside bar (H1-H4)
* Volume confirmation on bounce (preferably NY or London open)
* Optional: M30 RSI divergence
* **Avoid:** FOMC / ECB pressers
---
## ⏳ Validity
* **Buy Plan (H4):** Valid 48–72 hours → until July 26
* **Sell Plan (H1):** Valid 12–16 hours → intraday only
---
## ❌ Invalidation Conditions
* Close below 1.1620 (Buy)
* Close above 1.1815 (Sell)
* Major USD macro shift
---
## 🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* COT: USD weak bias
* DXY: Retracing lower from 106.00
* Retail: 68% short EURUSD
* Cross-Pair: EURGBP also trending up
* Macro: EUR resilience post-ECB minutes
* Sentiment Score: **+6/10**
---
## 📋 Final Trade Summary
🟩 **Buy plan is preferred**, aligned with HTF trend, clean OB-Fib structure, and good RR.
🟥 **Sell plan** is tactical, potential liquidity grab before bullish continuation.
Both setups allow flexibility with proper confirmation and risk control.
---
Major EUR-related news is scheduled this week, and it's critical to factor into both trade timing and plan execution. Here's your ⚠️ Fundamental Update for EURUSD:
🌐 EUR Fundamental Events – This Week
Date Event Time (UTC) Impact Level Forecast / Notes
July 24 (Wed) 🇪🇺 Eurozone PMIs (Manu. & Services) 08:00 UTC 🔴 High Strong driver of EUR intraday volatility
July 25 (Thu) 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision 12:15 UTC 🔴🔴🔴 Very High Key market mover – Dovish = bearish EUR
ECB Press Conference 12:45 UTC 🔴🔴🔴 Critical High volatility expected
July 26 (Fri) 🇩🇪 IFO Business Climate 08:00 UTC 🟡 Medium Impactful for EUR strength sentiment
🔍 Implications for Your EURUSD Trade Plan
✅ Buy Plan
Wait until post-ECB OR only take the setup with strong candle confirmation, ideally after NY session pullback.
Hold reduced exposure before July 25 ECB to avoid whipsaw.
❌ Sell Plan
Be extremely cautious; if ECB is neutral/hawkish, any tactical short may get invalidated rapidly.
If you take the short, exit before Thursday's ECB, unless trailing with SL to breakeven.
📊 Summary:
Yes, major EUR events this week — especially Thursday's ECB — could invalidate technical setups or accelerate them violently. Patience + confirmation = priority. Avoid entry during red events. Let volatility settle.
Let me know if you'd like to pause your trade plan until post-news or want a modified low-volatility alternative!
🧠 Always manage risk tightly around macro events. This is not investment advice.
🧠 Fundamental Snapshot
🔵 EUR Macro Landscape:
Factor Signal Explanation
Inflation 🔼 Still elevated Keeps ECB hawkish bias alive
ECB Policy ⚠️ Potentially hawkish hold Market expects no cut, but hawkish tone could push EUR higher
Economic Activity ⚪ Mixed PMIs Slight slowdown, but not recessionary
COT/Positioning 🟢 Light EUR longs Room for upside without overcrowding
Retail Sentiment 🔴 Bearish crowd Contrarian signal supports buys
USD Pressure 🟠 Mixed Fed possibly done hiking, but US economy resilient
⚠️ ECB SCENARIOS (July 25):
Scenario Likelihood Market Reaction
🟢 Hawkish Hold (no cut, firm inflation tone) 60% 🔼 EURUSD likely rallies
🟡 Neutral/Dovish Hold 30% 🔄 EUR consolidates or fades spike
🔴 Surprise Cut / Dovish Pivot 10% 🔽 EUR drops hard – buy invalidated
Most institutional forecasts lean toward a hawkish or neutral hold, giving EURUSD room to rise after the event.
🎯 Conclusion:
✅ Fundamentals support a buy, especially post-ECB.
❗ Best entry is after July 25, when market digests Lagarde's tone.
🔄 If entering early, stay small and manage risk very tightly — ECB surprises = volatility.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.