In my previous outlook, I expected EURUSD to drop right after the CPI release. However, the numbers came out slightly USD-negative, giving bulls a small boost:
- CPI Data (Actual vs Forecast):
- Core CPI m/m: 0.3% vs 0.3% (Neutral)
- CPI m/m: 0.2% vs 0.2% (Neutral)
- CPI y/y: 2.7% vs 2.8% (Mildly bearish USD)
The difference in CPI y/y is small, so the impact was mild, not strong enough to flip the overall trend but enough to create a temporary upward move and stop out the first short attempt.
Current Technical View
Now, price has tapped into the 1hr Fair Value Gap (FVG) and faced rejection. It’s also breaking lower from the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement area, suggesting sellers are stepping back in.
Bearish Factors:
1. FVG rejection confirms supply zone pressure.
2. Price now below EMA, showing momentum shift.
3. Higher timeframe structure still in a lower-high, lower-low trend.
4. CPI reaction was mild, so fundamentals don’t override the bearish technical setup.
My Bearish Targets This Time
A)- First target: 1.1540 (major support & fib extension area)
B)- Second target: 1.1475 (previous swing low & deeper extension)
This is my second, more technical attempt to catch the continuation of the downtrend after the CPI-induced spike. If 1.1540 breaks, I expect momentum to carry towards 1.1475.
- CPI Data (Actual vs Forecast):
- Core CPI m/m: 0.3% vs 0.3% (Neutral)
- CPI m/m: 0.2% vs 0.2% (Neutral)
- CPI y/y: 2.7% vs 2.8% (Mildly bearish USD)
The difference in CPI y/y is small, so the impact was mild, not strong enough to flip the overall trend but enough to create a temporary upward move and stop out the first short attempt.
Current Technical View
Now, price has tapped into the 1hr Fair Value Gap (FVG) and faced rejection. It’s also breaking lower from the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement area, suggesting sellers are stepping back in.
Bearish Factors:
1. FVG rejection confirms supply zone pressure.
2. Price now below EMA, showing momentum shift.
3. Higher timeframe structure still in a lower-high, lower-low trend.
4. CPI reaction was mild, so fundamentals don’t override the bearish technical setup.
My Bearish Targets This Time
A)- First target: 1.1540 (major support & fib extension area)
B)- Second target: 1.1475 (previous swing low & deeper extension)
This is my second, more technical attempt to catch the continuation of the downtrend after the CPI-induced spike. If 1.1540 breaks, I expect momentum to carry towards 1.1475.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.