The previous week started with US macro data related to Durable Goods Orders. This indicator surprisingly dropped by -6,3% in April compared to the previous month. Although negative, the indicator was better from the market estimate of -6,8%. The second estimate of US GDP Growth rate for Q1 was -0,2%, and was a bit better from the market estimate of -0,3%. Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE data, was posted during the previous week. The PCE in April increased by 0,1%, which was in line with market anticipation. Core PCE was also standing at the level of 0,1% for the month. At the same time, Personal Income was higher by 0,8% in April, highly above forecasted 0,4%, while Personal Spending was higher by 0,2% for the month, and in line with market estimate. The week was closed with University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Final indicator level for May was 52,2, modestly above market expectation of 51. The five years inflation expectations were also modestly decreased to the level of 4,2%, which was below market estimate of 4,6%.
The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany continues to move in a negative territory in June with the level of -19,9, a bit higher from market consensus at -19. The Unemployment rate in Germany in May remained unchanged from the previous month, at the level of 6,3%, and in line with market expectations. The Retail Sales in Germany in April dropped by -1,1% on a monthly basis, bringing the indicator to 2,3% when compared with the previous year. Preliminary Inflation estimate for Germany in May stands at 0,1% for the month and 2,1% on a yearly basis.
The currency pair moved in a mixed manner during the previous week. The highest weekly level at 1,1414 marked the start of the week, however, eurusd is ending the week lower, at the level of 1,1348. Still the lowest weekly level was shortly touched at Thursday's trading session at the level of 1,1213. The RSI moved between levels of 53 and 59, without a clear indication that the market is heading toward either side. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a potential change of course in the coming period.
The week ahead brings some important news, which the market is currently following with high anticipation. The US jobs data will be in focus in the week ahead, including the Non-farm payrolls for May. This might bring some higher volatility in case that the official data are not in line with market anticipation. On the other hand, the ECB meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, where ECB members will make a decision whether to cut interest rates for another time during this year. As per Reuters pool, there is a high probability that the ECB will make another cut at the June 5th meeting, by 25bps, bringing the facility rate to the level of 2%. This day might be another volatile day on the market. As per current charts, there is probability for eurusd to test 1,1250 short term support level in the week ahead, and this would be the level to watch. If it holds, then the eurusd will revert back with high probability to reach levels above the previous week's highs at 1,14. In this case, the currency pair will head to test 1,15 levels for one more time, but it might occur in more than one week. For the week ahead, the 1,14 resistance would be the level to watch. Current charts are showing low probability that the short term support at 1,1250 will be breached to the downside. Just in case that this move occurs, then the next level to watch will be 1,11. However, such a move currently has a low probability of occurrence.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Inflation rate in EuroZone, flash for May, ECB rate decision, ECB Press conference, Trade Balance for Germany in April,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, JOLTs Jobs Openings in April, ISM Services PMI for May, Non-farm Payrolls in May, Unemployment rate in May.
The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany continues to move in a negative territory in June with the level of -19,9, a bit higher from market consensus at -19. The Unemployment rate in Germany in May remained unchanged from the previous month, at the level of 6,3%, and in line with market expectations. The Retail Sales in Germany in April dropped by -1,1% on a monthly basis, bringing the indicator to 2,3% when compared with the previous year. Preliminary Inflation estimate for Germany in May stands at 0,1% for the month and 2,1% on a yearly basis.
The currency pair moved in a mixed manner during the previous week. The highest weekly level at 1,1414 marked the start of the week, however, eurusd is ending the week lower, at the level of 1,1348. Still the lowest weekly level was shortly touched at Thursday's trading session at the level of 1,1213. The RSI moved between levels of 53 and 59, without a clear indication that the market is heading toward either side. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a potential change of course in the coming period.
The week ahead brings some important news, which the market is currently following with high anticipation. The US jobs data will be in focus in the week ahead, including the Non-farm payrolls for May. This might bring some higher volatility in case that the official data are not in line with market anticipation. On the other hand, the ECB meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, where ECB members will make a decision whether to cut interest rates for another time during this year. As per Reuters pool, there is a high probability that the ECB will make another cut at the June 5th meeting, by 25bps, bringing the facility rate to the level of 2%. This day might be another volatile day on the market. As per current charts, there is probability for eurusd to test 1,1250 short term support level in the week ahead, and this would be the level to watch. If it holds, then the eurusd will revert back with high probability to reach levels above the previous week's highs at 1,14. In this case, the currency pair will head to test 1,15 levels for one more time, but it might occur in more than one week. For the week ahead, the 1,14 resistance would be the level to watch. Current charts are showing low probability that the short term support at 1,1250 will be breached to the downside. Just in case that this move occurs, then the next level to watch will be 1,11. However, such a move currently has a low probability of occurrence.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Inflation rate in EuroZone, flash for May, ECB rate decision, ECB Press conference, Trade Balance for Germany in April,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, JOLTs Jobs Openings in April, ISM Services PMI for May, Non-farm Payrolls in May, Unemployment rate in May.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.